[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 06N18W and 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from
02N22W, to the Equator along 35W, to the coast of Brazil, at the
Equator along 50W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers from from 02N to 07N between 11W and 17W. scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N southward
from 41W westward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge
extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the SW
corner of the area.

A surface ridge extends from a SE U.S.A. high pressure center
into the Straits of Florida. The high pressure center will move
ESE, off the South Carolina-Georgia coast tonight, with the ridge
extending W across the N Gulf waters through Thursday. Moderate
to locally fresh winds will become fresh to strong in the far SE
Gulf and Straits of Florida beginning on Tuesday, then continue
through early Thursday as high pressure builds southeastward in
the western Atlantic Ocean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The SW part of a weakening cold front passes through 32N68W in
the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern coast of Florida along 27N.
rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through
32N65W to 27N74W, to 20N78W near SE Cuba.

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the SW
corner of the area, from 12N southward from 76W westward. An
eastern Pacific Ocean surface trough is along 08N between 74W and
84W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is on top of a 500 mb-to-
700 mb inverted trough, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Strong high pressure remains centered in the N central Atlantic
Ocean. The high pressure will maintain fresh trade winds across
the entire area south of 17N, with locally strong trade winds
across the south central Caribbean Sea through early Thursday.
The southern part of a broad inverted trough will pass over the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday night, the NE Caribbean Sea on
Thursday, and then across Hispaniola on Thursday night and Friday,
followed by fresh to locally strong E to SE winds, and active
weather.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SW part of a weakening cold front passes through 32N68W in
the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern coast of Florida along 27N.
rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through
32N65W to 27N74W, to 20N78W near SE Cuba.

A stationary front passes through 32N63W to 28N70W, crossing the
Bahamas near 23N75W to 28N79W. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of
the line that passes through 32N62W 29N65W 26N68W. isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N to 26N between 68W and
80W. rainshowers are possible remainder of the area from 60W
to the stationary front from 20N northward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 36N43W.

The cold front, that is moving SE from Florida, will merge with
the stationary front by early Tuesday. The merged front will
reach from 27N65W to W Cuba near 23N79W by early Wed. Strong high
pressure will slide eastward along 31N tonight through early Thu
and bring fresh to strong NE to E winds to much of the central and
SW waters N of the front. A broad surface trough will approach
67W Thu and move W to 72W Fri, followed by fresh to locally strong
E to SE winds, and active weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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