[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near
11N15W to 06N17W and 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W, to
the Equator along 35W, to the coast of Brazil, at the Equator
along 50W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers
from 04N southward from 47W westward. scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers from 02N to 07N between 08W and 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a weakening cold front passes through 30N74W in
the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern coast of Florida along 27.5N.
rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through
32N68W to 26N80W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge
is in the central Gulf waters.

A weak surface ridge extends from a SE U.S.A. high pressure
center into the Straits of Florida. The high pressure center will
move E-SE, and move eastward off the South Carolina-Georgia coast
tonight, with the ridge extending W across the N Gulf waters
through Thursday. A weak surface trough will move W off SW Florida
tonight, and across the eastern Gulf on Monday, followed by
moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds through Tuesday as it
becomes diffuse in the north central Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds will develop in the far SE Gulf and Straits of Florida
beginning on Tuesday, and continue through early Thursday as high
pressure builds southeastward in the western Atlantic Ocean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front is over E Cuba from 21N77W to
20N79W. Scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba. This
boundary will slowly dissipate through Mon. Atlantic high pressure
will maintain fresh trades across the entire area south of 17N,
with locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean along the
north coast of Colombia through Thu. The southern portion of a
broad inverted trough will move into the eastern Caribbean Thu,
and reach to south of Hispaniola on Fri. Expect a surge of fresh
to locally strong E to SE winds in the wake of the trough along
with scattered showers and thunderstorms possibly impacting the
eastern Caribbean, the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico towards the
end of the upcoming week.

Strong high pressure remains centered in the N central Atlantic
Ocean, while a weakening old frontal boundary extends from just W
of Cayman Islands NE across central Cuba. This pattern will
maintain fresh trade winds across the entire area south of 17N,
with locally strong trade winds across the south central
Caribbean Sea through early Thursday. The southern part of a
broad inverted trough will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Wednesday night, and move W across the NE Caribbean Sea on
Thursday, across Hispaniola on Thursday night and Friday,
followed by fresh to locally strong E to SE winds, and active
weather.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N73W to Fort Pierce,
Florida. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A
Stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 32N67W to E Cuba near
21N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
90 nm SE of the front to include the S Bahamas. The two fronts
will merge Mon evening from 32N64W to the central Bahamas near
23N74W. Strong high pressure will slide eastward near 31N Mon
night through Wed and create a tight gradient between it and the
front. Deep layered troughing in the vicinity of 60W Wed will
manifest itself as an inverted trough at the surface that is
forecast to shift W on Thu toward the SE Bahamas.

A large upper-level trough over the eastern and central Atlantic
with axis from 30N30W to 10N53W to 16N52W. Upper level diffluence
E of the trough is generating an area of cloudiness and isolated
showers and thunderstorms over the E Atlantic to include the Cape
Verde Islands.

A very large 1035 mb high centered over the central Atlantic near
36N41W is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades and fair
weather over the tropical Atlc N of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W.
Winds veer from the E to SE along the SW flank of the high.


A dry and reinforcing front is moving SE across the NW waters
this morning and will merge gradually with the current stationary
front by early Tuesday. The merged boundary will reach from
28N65W to 23N76W on Tuesday morning, then become stationary from
27N65W to west central Cuba by early Wednesday. Strong high
pressure will slide eastward along 31N tonight through early
Thursday, resulting in a tight pressure gradient N of the front.
This will bring fresh to strong NE to E winds to much of the
central and SW waters. A broad surface trough will approach 67W on
Thursday, and move W to 72W on Friday, followed by fresh to
locally strong E to SE winds, and active weather.




For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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