[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 AM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast listed on the
website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Frequent gusts to gale force winds are
forecast along the coast for AGADIR. Near gale force winds are
forecast for the NE portion of TARFAYA. The OUTLOOK, valid until
01/1200 UTC, consists of the threat of near gale over AGADIR and
TARFAYA.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 00N30W to the coast
of Brazil, near 01S46W. Isolated moderate convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 00N-05N between 00W-15W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of South
America within 150 nm either side of a line from 08S30W to
02N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a weakening cold front extends from Fort Pierce,
Florida to Sarasota, Florida. The front is void of precipitation.
High pressure ridges S over the Gulf of Mexico from the
Mississippi Valley. Light to moderate winds are occurring beneath
the ridge over the Gulf. Convergent SE low-level flow is producing
cloudiness and patchy light rain along the Gulf coast of Mexico W
of 95W. The cold front will dissipate tonight. High pressure over
the United States will head east off the Georgia coast Mon but
maintain a ridge WSW across the northern gulf waters through Thu.
15 to 20 kt SE return flow will then dominate the Gulf Tue through
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front is over E Cuba from 21N77W to
20N79W. Scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba. This
boundary will slowly dissipate through Mon. Atlantic high pressure
will maintain fresh trades across the entire area south of 17N,
with locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean along the
north coast of Colombia through Thu. The southern portion of a
broad inverted trough will move into the eastern Caribbean Thu,
and reach to south of Hispaniola on Fri. Expect a surge of fresh
to locally strong E to SE winds in the wake of the trough along
with scattered showers and thunderstorms possibly impacting the
eastern Caribbean, the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico towards the
end of the upcoming week.

Otherwise, a relatively dry weather pattern is being promoted by
mid to upper-level ridging extending over the basin from South
America. This pattern will persist through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N73W to Fort Pierce,
Florida. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A
Stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 32N67W to E Cuba near
21N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
90 nm SE of the front to include the S Bahamas. The two fronts
will merge Mon evening from 32N64W to the central Bahamas near
23N74W. Strong high pressure will slide eastward near 31N Mon
night through Wed and create a tight gradient between it and the
front. Deep layered troughing in the vicinity of 60W Wed will
manifest itself as an inverted trough at the surface that is
forecast to shift W on Thu toward the SE Bahamas.

A large upper-level trough over the eastern and central Atlantic
with axis from 30N30W to 10N53W to 16N52W. Upper level diffluence
E of the trough is generating an area of cloudiness and isolated
showers and thunderstorms over the E Atlantic to include the Cape
Verde Islands.

A very large 1035 mb high centered over the central Atlantic near
36N41W is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades and fair
weather over the tropical Atlc N of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W.
Winds veer from the E to SE along the SW flank of the high.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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