[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Apr 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast listed on the
website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Frequent gusts to gale force
winds are forecast along the coasts for the following area:
AGADIR. Near gale force winds are forecast for the NE portion of
the following area: TARFAYA. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that
follow the forecast that is valid until 01/1200 UTC, consists of
the threat of near gale over AGADIR and TARFAYA.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of
Africa near 08N13W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to
01S33W to the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is present along the coast
of South America within 150 nm either side of a line from an area
bounded by 07S30W to 03N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front has just entered the far NE Gulf near the
Florida Panhandle. High pressure ridges S over the Gulf of Mexico
from the Mississippi Valley. Light to moderate winds are
occurring beneath the ridge over the Gulf. Convergent SE low-level
flow is producing cloudiness and patchy light rain along the Gulf
coast of Mexico W of 94W. The cold front will continue heading SE
over the NE Gulf and dissipate tonight. High pressure over the
United States will head east off the Georgia coast Mon but
maintain a ridge WSW across the northern gulf waters through Thu.
15 to 20 kt SE return flow will then dominate the Gulf Tue through
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening front has stalled just S of Cuba from 21N79W to
21N84W. This boundary will slowly dissipate through Mon. Atlantic
high pressure will maintain fresh trades across the entire area
south of 17N, with locally strong trades over the S central
Caribbean along the north coast of Colombia through Thu. The
southern portion of a broad inverted trough will move into the
eastern Caribbean Thu, and reach to south of Hispaniola on Fri.
Expect a surge of fresh to locally strong E to SE winds in the
wake of the trough along with scattered showers and thunderstorms
possibly impacting the eastern Caribbean, the Lesser Antilles and
Puerto Rico towards the end of the upcoming week.

Otherwise, a relatively dry weather pattern is being promoted by
mid to upper-level ridging extending over the basin from South
America. This pattern will persist through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N66W through weak 1016 mb low
pressure centered near 29N71W to 23N77W, then continues as a
weakening stationary front to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring along and up
to 90 nm SE of the front over the Bahamas from 22N to 28N.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also found
along and up to 90 nm SE of the front to the N of 29N.

A new cold front entering the NW waters from the SE United States
will move quickly eastward and merge with the weakening front
along a position from near 28N65W to W central Cuba Mon night,
then become stationary from near 27N65W to W central Cuba by early
Wed. Strong high pressure will slide eastward near 31N Mon night
through Wed and create a tight gradient between it and the front.
Deep layered troughing in the vicinity of 60W Wed will manifest
itself as an inverted trough at the surface that is forecast to
shift W on Thu toward the SE Bahamas.

An upper-level trough extending SW over the eastern and central
Atlantic from 32N28W to 23N40W to 16N52W is generating an area of
cloudiness and isolated showers and thunderstorms W of the Cape
Verde Islands from 15N to 19N between 30W and 42W.

A very large 1036 mb high centered over the central Atlantic near
38N43W is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades and fair
weather over the tropical Atlc N of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W.
Winds veer from the E to SE along the SW flank of the high.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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