[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01N26W
02N34W, to the Equator along 50W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 02N to 08N between 11W and
21W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is pushing a cold front through the Gulf of
Mexico, now passing through the Florida Panhandle, into the N
central Gulf waters, into and beyond NE Mexico. Rainshowers are
possible to the NW of the 28N80W 23N97W.

A stationary front cuts across Andros Island in the Bahamas,
through the Straits of Florida, to the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers
cover inland and coastal areas of Central America, from 13N in
Honduras to 21N in the Yucatan Channel between 86W and 96W in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

The current cold front will reach the SE Gulf on Saturday, where
it will stall and dissipate. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front and prevail through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As previously mentioned, a nearly stationary front is over the
far SE Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. Scattered
showers and tstms are along the frontal boundary. Part of this
convective activity is reaching western Cuba and the Yucatan
Channel. The front is forecast to become diffuse late today. A
surface trough is moving across Puerto Rico generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over parts of the UK/US Virgin
Islands and adjacent waters, and across eastern Puerto Rico.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the island during the afternoon hours. Moisture associated
with this trough will reach Hispaniola late today. The most recent
scatterometer data show moderate SE winds behind the trough axis
as well as fresh trades across the ABC Islands and the Gulf of
Venezuela. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail over
the south-central Caribbean through Sat night. Moderate trades
are expected elsewhere through Mon.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N69W to Andros Island in the
Bahamas, through and beyond the Straits of Florida. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 20N northward from 60W westward.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front covers the area that is from
22N northward between 44W and 58W. A 1018 mb low pressure center
is near 29N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
rainshowers are from 22N to 30N between 42W and 47W. rainshowers
are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W and 60W.'

The current stationary front will dissipate this evening. A
second cold front will move into the northwest waters Fri night,
reach from 31N74W to southern Florida Sat night, then slowly
dissipate by Sun morning. A third cold front will push south of
31N Sun. This front will reach from 30N65W to the northern Bahamas
Mon night and from 25N65W to the central Bahamas on Tue night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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