[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, to the
Equator along 28W, and then close to the Equator from 28W to 50W
near the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are from
09N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a South Carolina 1007 mb low pressure
center, through 32N77W, continuing across Lake Okeechobee in South
Florida, to 23N89W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes
stationary from 23N89W to 22N92W, into the northern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are to the SE of the line that passes
through 26N82W 24N90W 21N97W. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are in the coastal plains of Mexico from 22N to 24N
between 97W and 99W.

The current cold front will move to the NW Cuba and the Yucatan
basin on Wednesday morning, and become diffuse by Wednesday
evening. Another weak cold front will reach the Texas coast on
Wednesday night, and move across the northwest and north central
waters on Thursday and Thursday night, and then across the eastern
Gulf from late Thursday night through Friday night as it slows
down. This front will exit from the SE Gulf on Saturday, followed
by weak high pres that will become centered over the northwest
Gulf. The high pressure will slide eastward to the far north
central Gulf by Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from 23N60W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, into the SE corner of
the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, from 23N in the Atlantic Ocean
southward, into the Caribbean Sea, between 54W and 70W, and from
12N to 15N between 70W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
in parts of Hispaniola.

The earlier numerous strong precipitation that was in northern
sections of Colombia and NW parts of Venezuela, and in eastern
Panama near the border with Colombia, about 6 hour ago or so, has
weakened. Broken to overcast multilayered debris clouds remain
from Colombia to Venezuela. Cyclonic wind flow. with an upper
level inverted trough, spans the area from Venezuela to Colombia
to Panama. A comparatively newer area of numerous strong
precipitation is in Colombia from 05N to 07N between 73W and 76W.
Scattered strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 76W and
80W, near the border of Colombia and Panama.

The wind speeds will pulse to fresh-to-strong in the central
Caribbean Sea during the overnight hours through Sunday night.
Gentle to moderate winds will continue through the period,
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N47W to 31N48W. The front becomes
stationary at 31N48W, and it continues to 27N55W 26N62W. A cold
front extends from a South Carolina 1007 mb low pressure center,
through 32N77W, continuing across Lake Okeechobee in South
Florida, to 23N89W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 25N
northward from 66W westward. isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 25N northward between 43W and 55W. rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 24N northward from 43W westward.

An upper level trough extends from a northern Morocco cyclonic
circulation, into northern sections of the Western Sahara, to
25N30W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic

The current cold front, from South Carolina to Florida, will
reach from 31N70W to the straits of Florida on Thursday, where it
will stall and dissipate. A second cold front will move into the
NW waters on Friday night. This front will reach from near 31N72W
to the straits of Florida on Saturday night, and from 31N66W to W
Cuba on Sunday night.

The current cold front will reach from near 31N75W to the Straits
of Florida by early Wednesday afternoon, and from near 31N73W to
NW Cuba on Wednesday night, and then stall into Thursday. The
front will dissipate during day on Thursday. A second cold front
will move across the northwest waters on Friday night. This front
will reach from near 31N72W to the Straits of Florida on Saturday
night, and from near 31N66W to 25N72W to west-central Cuba by
Sunday night. Weak high pressure will build across the area
behind the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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