[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W to 05N16W and 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from
01N21W to 03N40W to 04N48W, and to coastal sections of Brazil and
French Guiana near 04N52W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 09N southward from 60W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends west from Tampa Bay Florida
to 28N93W. Fresh to locally strong easterly flow continues north
of the front. The stationary front will move north tonight as a
weak warm front ahead of a cold front reaching the Texas coast
around sunrise on Sun preceded by a pre-frontal squall line. The
cold front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of
Campeche on Sun night, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the
Yucatan Peninsula on Mon night, then slow somewhat on Tue passing
through the Straits of Florida late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough cuts across NW Cuba into the NW sections of
Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N
southward from 77W westward. widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the coastal areas of Colombia, from its
border with Panama to northern sections of Colombia, and into the
coastal plains and some interior sections of NW Venezuela.

Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong
trades across the south-central Caribbean and along the southern
coast of Hispaniola through early Sun. Strong nocturnal trades are
then expected to resume on Sun night along the north coast of the
South America. A weakening cold front will pass southeast through
the Yucatan Basin on Tue night, and wash out across the northwest
Caribbean during the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from 31N62W to 28N80W. The front becomes
stationary from that point west extending across the Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered showers are noted along the front. A pre-
frontal trough extends from 29N63W to 27N78W with scattered
moderate convection affecting the northern Bahamas. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored
by a 1031 mb high located near 35N36W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N14W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 30W eastward. A 1009 mb low pressure center is near
35N12W. A frontal boundary is inland in northern sections of
Africa. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent
in satellite imagery.

Remnants of the cold front/stationary front, that is extending
southwestward from 29N65W to central Florida, will lift north on
Sun with near gale force southeast flow developing across the
forecast waters north of the Bahamas on Mon in association with a
surface low shifting east across the southeast United States. The
surface low will move northeast along the Georgia and South
Carolina coasts on Tue, and drag a a couple of weak cold fronts
across the northwest waters during the middle of next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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