[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough along the coast of Africa near 09N13W extends
southwestward to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues westward from 00N22W
to the coast of South America near 01S45W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 01S-02N between 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from N Florida near 28N83W to the central
Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W, continuing thereafter as a stationary
front to NE Mexico near 25N97W. The front is associated with very
little precipitation, but may spark some isolated showers along
the frontal boundary through the night tonight. A surface trough
is located in the Bay of Campeche and has some convective activity
associated with it, within the western half of the bay.

A slowing cold front extends from Tampa Bay Florida
to 26N90W then becomes stationary to extreme northeast Mexico.
The front will stall east to west along 26N late this evening.
Remnants of the front will lift north as a warm front on Sat ahead
of a second cold front reaching the Texas coast around sunrise on
Sun preceded by a line of thunderstorms. This second cold front
will reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on
Sun night, from the Florida Big bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on
Mon night, then drift southeast on Tue and finally southeast of
the gulf waters late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, spans the entire
area. The trough cuts across central Cuba, toward the
Colombia/Panama border. Rainshowers cover the area that extends
from Jamaica to the Bahamas near 28N between 70W and 87W in parts
of Honduras.

Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh-to-locally strong
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through early Sun.
Strong nocturnal trades are then expected to resume on Sun night
along the north coast of the South America. Northeast swell
currently across the tropical waters east of the Leewards will
gradually subside through late Sat. A weakening cold front will
pass southeast through the Yucatan Basin on Tue night, and wash
out across the northwest Caribbean during the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The current cold front, that passes through 33N66W, to 30N76W,
to 28N82W in Florida, to 27N87W in the Gulf of Mexico, will reach
from Bermuda to south Florida this evening, and then stall in an
east-to-west sense, along 26N on Sat night. Remnants of this
front will lift northward on Sunday. Near gale-force SE wind flow
will develop to the north of the Bahamas on Monday, to the east
of a surface low shifting eastward across the southeast U.S.A.
The surface low will move northeast along the Georgia and South
Carolina coasts on Tue, and drag a cold front across the northwest
waters during the middle of next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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