[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03N40W to the coast
of South America near 01N50W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 02S-06N between 10W-30W. Similar convection is from 04N-08N
between 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is presently within 30 nm of the Texas coast moving
SE. Broken overcast low clouds are within 30 nm of the front. The
E Gulf of Mexico has 05-10 kt southerly flow with seas of 1 to 3
ft. The W Gulf has SE return flow with seas of 3 to 5 ft. No
shower or thunderstorm activity is noted over the Gulf.

The cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight and stall from
south Florida to south Texas on Friday, before lifting back
northward as a warm front on Saturday ahead of yet another late-
season cold front that will be moving out of the southwestern U.S.
to Texas. The second front is expected to move across the
northwestern Gulf by late Saturday, and reach from near the
western Florida panhandle to the SW Gulf Sunday night. A warm
front will extend eastward along the northeast Gulf coast out
ahead of the cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Residual scattered showers are presently noted over E Cuba,
Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate
convection is over N Colombia. Otherwise, fair weather conditions
are noted elsewhere across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
Swell to near 8 ft continue east of Windward Islands, while brisk
easterly trade wind flow continues within 150 nm north of the
coasts of Venezuela and Colombia.

A weak surface trough located over central Hispaniola is expected
to become diffuse Thursday. Fresh to strong winds currently over
the southern Caribbean will continue through late week, and expand
north and west into the southwestern Caribbean late Wed through
late Fri as high pressure builds to the north across the Atlantc.
These winds are expected to weaken Saturday afternoon, before
pulsing back up to fresh to strong Sat night into Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 32N60W to 27N66W. A dissipating
stationary front continues to the central Bahamas near 24N74W.
Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the front. Seas of 3 to 6
ft are W of the front. A 1033 mb high is over the central Atlantic
near 35N41W. Swell of 8 to 13 ft are S of this High.

The southern portion of the front will dissipate tonight. the
remainder of the front will become diffuse Thursday evening. The
next cold front will move into the western Atlantic from Florida
late Thursday, reaching from Bermuda to south Florida by late Fri,
then stall from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida by late
Sat. East winds will gradually increase to 20 kt over much of the
waters west of 65W.

Farther east, the tail-end of a dissiapting cold front is over
the far east Atlantic near the Canary Islands from 32N15W to
27N24W. A large area of NW swell with wave heights of 8 to 15 ft
will accompany this front. This front will move to W Africa on
Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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