[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong cold front is crossing the western Gulf this evening.
High pressure building behind the front is supporting gale-force
winds S of 28N W of the front, and strong to near gale-force
winds elsewhere behind the front. Seas have built as high as 13 ft
according to buoy 42002, with 8 ft seas or greater likely
occurring over much of the western Gulf N of 24N this evening.
Seas will increase to 12 ft or greater over the SW Gulf as the
gale continues there through tonight. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish Sunday morning as the front shifts farther
eastward and the high pressure builds into the western Gulf. For
more details please refer to the High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western
Africa near 11N15W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to
02N30W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
03N to 08N E of 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front extends from 29N90W to a weak area of low
pressure near 22N95W to 20N97W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection with thunderstorms are within 180 nm of the front N of
26N. Fresh to strong SE winds precede this front, except for
moderate winds within 90 nm of the west coast of Florida. Gale
force winds are occurring W of the front S of 28N. Please refer
to the special features section for more details. A reinforcing
cold front is crossing the far NW Gulf from 30N94W to 27N98W.

Over the next 24 hours the front will cross the majority of the
remainder of the Gulf basin, with the winds and seas behind the
front gradually diminishing. High pressure will build over the
northern Gulf early next week and will become centered over the NE
Gulf by Tue. This will result in fresh to strong return flow
developing over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging north of the region is supporting fresh to locally strong
winds over the Gulf of Honduras, off of NW Colombia, and S of
Hispaniola. Seas to Mainly moderate to fresh trades are occurring
elsewhere. The ridge will persist into Sun over the western
Atlantic, supporting fresh to strong trade winds and building seas
in these areas as well the central Caribbean in general.

The ridge will shift east ahead of a cold front moving into the
northwest Caribbean late Sun, reaching from central Cuba to
eastern Honduras Mon followed by strong northerly winds. This
late season front will weaken through late Mon allowing winds and
seas to diminish over the northwest Caribbean through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...


Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds cover the western
Atlantic this evening as high pressure of 1030 mb centered near
33N61W dominates the region. SE to S winds will increase to fresh
to strong W of 75W early Sun ahead of a cold front moving off the
northeast Florida coast late Sun, then increase to strong to near
gale force ahead of the front through Mon. Winds to gale force
are possible Sun night north of 30N between 75W and 78W as the
front moves through the region, reaching from 31N70W to eastern
Cuba by Mon night. Winds will diminish through late Tue as the
front reaches from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas. High pressure
will build along 30N in the wake of the front as it stalls and
weakens from 31N60W to the central Bahamas Wed, maintaining
generally light winds and modest seas north of 25N, and moderate
trades south of 25N, with pulses of fresh to strong trades off
Hispaniola.

A stationary front extends from 31N47W to 26N63W. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are N of the front. Scattered showers are within
120 nm of either side of the front E of 55W. This front will
gradually dissipate through Sunday night.

Farther east, a 1026 mb high centered near 28N35W is maintaining
light winds north of 20N, with moderate to fresh trade winds south
of 20N. NE to E swell of 8 to 9 ft persists south of 20N as well,
as noted in recent altimeter satellite passes, reaching as far
west as the Windward Islands. For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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