[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will cross the Gulf of Mexico beginning
Saturday, and will move SE Saturday through Sunday night over the
Gulf basin. High pressure building behind the front will support
gale force northerly winds S of 25N over the SW Gulf behind the
cold front starting Saturday afternoon and continuing until midday
Sunday. For more details please refer to the High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western
Africa near 09N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
03N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed from 01N to 07N between 07W and 30W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 06N between 30W and 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

No significant shower activity is occurring across the Gulf of
Mexico today as the western extension of a surface ridge and
abundant dry air aloft continues to support fair weather.  The
surface winds are generally out of the southeast or south and
are strongest over the northwestern waters, where buoys and
ships are reporting 20-25 kt winds. The highest seas are
near 7 ft off the Texas and western Louisiana coasts this evening
as confirmed by buoy 42002. Seas are notably lower over the
eastern Gulf waters due to the lighter winds and limited fetch.

Looking ahead to the weekend, a cold front is expected to move
over the northwestern waters by Saturday morning. This boundary
is then expected to sweep across the entire area by Sunday night,
with strong northwesterly winds in its wake. Gale force winds are
forecast behind the front over the SW Gulf for a portion of this
weekend. Please refer to the Special Features section for more
details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fairly quiet weather conditions are occurring over the Caribbean
Sea today, with only the typical patches of clouds and embedded
showers moving westward across the region. The showers appear
more concentrated over the eastern Caribbean, generally north of
15N and east of 72W. The trade wind flow is moderate due to weak
ridging north of the area and strong flow is generally confined to
the usual location, near the north coast of Colombia. Seas are
also fairly moderate, generally 4 to 6 ft, except a little higher
near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure is expected to strengthen to the north of the
area, this will cause winds and seas to increase by late this
weekend. A late season cold front is expected to make it to the
northwestern waters Sunday night or early Monday before weakening
shortly thereafter.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is producing scattered showers within 120 N
mi of its axis and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
within 120 nm S of its axis that extends from 32N53W to 26N61W. A
weak trough has broken off the tail end of the front and is
analyzed from 29N65W to 25N69W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring within 120 n mi east and 60 n mi west
of that axis. Winds are around 15-20 kt just north and northwest
of the trough axis due to the pressure gradient between that
feature and high pressure to the north of the area. Otherwise,
generally tranquil weather prevails across the remainder of the
western Atlantic.

Looking ahead to the weekend, southerly flow is expected to
increase over the far western Atlantic waters ahead of the next
cold front. This front is expected to move over the western
Atlantic Sunday night and early Monday.

Farther east, a 1028 mb high pressure system is centered over
the eastern Atlantic near 29N35W. This high pressure is
maintaining light to moderate winds north of 20N and moderate to
fresh trade winds farther south over the deep tropics of the
eastern Atlantic. Earlier altimeter satellite passes indicate
seas of 8 to 10 ft mainly south of 20N, likely in NE to E swell.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net