[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 06N10W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 150 nm
on either side of the boundaries between 07W-20W and within 90 nm
to the north of the ITCZ between 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from east to west along the northern Gulf coast
from Florida to Texas. Buoy and platform observations along with
a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate generally
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin south of the
ridge. Seas are 2 to 4 ft overall.

A few platforms are showing 3 to 5 nm visibility due to fog/haze
over the northwest Gulf, but otherwise visibility remains
unrestricted. While there are copious fires ongoing over the
northern Yucatan, winds are currently too light to create large
plumes to impact marine visibility over the southwest Gulf. No
significant shower or thunderstorms activity is observed.

The moderate to fresh E to SE flow across the Gulf will become
fresh to strong Fri ahead of a late season cold front moving off
the Texas coast Fri night. Strong northerly winds will follow the
front, reaching gale force off Veracruz by late Sat as the front
reaches from western Florida Panhandle to the northwest Yucatan
peninsula. The front will sweep the southeast Gulf by late Sun.
Winds and seas diminishing from west to east through Mon as high
pressure builds across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front
through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak ridging north of the basin is maintaining light to moderate
trades winds everywhere, except for fresh winds off the coast of
northeast Colombia and in the Windward Passage as noted in a
recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the
central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. No significant shower
and thunderstorms

Moderate to fresh trade winds will increase to fresh to strong
with building seas across the central Caribbean and in the Gulf
of Honduras into Sun. The ridge will shift east ahead of a cold
front moving into the northwest Caribbean late Sun, and reaching
from central Cuba to eastern Honduras Mon followed by strong
northerly winds. This late season front will weaken through late
Mon allowing winds and seas to diminish over the northwest
Caribbean through Tue. Farther east, NE swell in excess of 8 ft
will persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands into early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida. Light
to moderate E to SE winds are noted across the area. Buoy and
ship observations indicate 8 ft seas north of the front 27N east
of 75W. A few showers are noted along the front near 26N66W.

The front will stall along 27N today then dissipate. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will support pulses of
fresh to strong trade winds off Hispaniola tonight and Sat. SE
winds increase to fresh to strong east of 75W early Sun ahead of
a second cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast late
Sun. Strong to near gale force winds and building seas will
accompany the front north of 27N as it moves east, reaching from
31N70W to eastern Cuba Mon night. Winds will diminish through
late Tue as the front reaches from Bermuda to the southern
Bahamas, but NW swell in excess of 8 ft will persist north of 27N
east of 75W.

Farther east, 1028 mb high pressure is centered over the eastern
Atlantic near 30N35W. The high pressure is maintaining light to
moderate winds north of 20N and moderate to fresh trade winds
farther south into the deep tropics of the eastern Atlantic.
Recent altimeter satellite passes indicate seas of 8 to 10 ft
mainly south of 20N, likely in NE to E swell. An upper trough
along 50W is enhancing the scattered convection along the ITCZ
east of 30W, with only a few showers elsewhere along the ITCZ and
monsoon trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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