[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 04N16W and 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from
03N22W, crossing the Equator along 35W, to 01S45W in Brazil.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers,
in a disorganized pattern, are from 07N southward between 05W and
25W, and from 02N southward between 35W and 50W. rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 24N79W, into the Straits of
Florida, just to the south of the southernmost part of the Florida
Keys, to 24N84W. Scattered showers are possible along the front.

A surface ridge passes through southern Georgia and the Florida
Big Bend, to 28N89W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near
19N97W.

Southerly return flow is forecast across the Gulf waters through
Friday, ahead of a cold front that is moving off the Texas coast
on Friday night. The front will extend from the Mississippi Delta
to the Bay of Campeche on Saturday night. The front will extend
from the Florida Big Bend area to the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.
The front will move southeast of the area on Sunday night. Gale-
force wind conditions are forecast across the SW Gulf from
Saturday into Saturday night. Southerly return flow will
redevelop across the northwest Gulf on Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trade winds continue across the basin. Broad
upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough continues from the eastern Pacific Ocean, across
the border of Costa Rica and Panama, across 80W in Panama, into
northern Colombia. Precipitation: scattered moderate convection
is observed across the basin mainly over the Greater Antilles.

Strong nocturnal winds are expected along the coast of Colombia
through Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across
the tropical waters that are to the east of the Lesser Antilles
through Tuesday. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will develop
across the northwest Caribbean Sea on Friday, ahead of a cold
front that is passing through the Yucatan Channel on Sunday. The
front will extend from eastern Cuba to the eastern part of
Honduras late on Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N58W to 27N65W to 24N73W, then
becomes stationary through 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed along the cold front, and lighter activity prevails
along the stationary front.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean from 10N northward from 70W eastward. A 1028 mb high
pressure center is near 30N35W.

The cold front will stall from 27N65W to the central Bahamas on
Friday. Remnants of the front will lift northward on Saturday and
Sunday, ahead of a second cold front that will be moving off the
southeast Georgia coast on Sunday evening, with the second front
reaching from Bermuda to east Cuba early on Tuesday. Strong to
near gale force southerly flow is forecast to the north of the
Bahamas on Sunday and Sunday night, with fresh to strong northerly
winds expected behind the front on Monday and Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/MT
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