[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 12N16W to
06N16W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 02S30W to
South America near 03S42W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 00N-10N between 09W-13W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 05S-02N between 21W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A quasi-stationary front extends from Fort Pierce Florida near
29N80W to N of Tampa Florida near 28N83W to the central Gulf of
Mexico near 27N90W to S of Veracruz Mexico near 19N95W. Abundant
cloudiness prevails over the N Gulf N of 26N. Radar imagery shows
scattered showers over central Florida N of 27N. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the majority of the basin while an
area of moderate to fresh winds is noted in scatterometer data
over the Bay of Campeche.

The front will retrograde northward on Mon. A second push of cold
air along with a developing low pressure along the frontal
boundary will allow the front to transition to a cold front again
moving over the northern Gulf waters on Mon. The low is forecast
to move across Florida toward the western Atlantic late on Mon
dragging this cold front across the SE Gulf and South Florida by
Wed morning. The front is forecast to dissipate across the Straits
of Florida by Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate tradewinds dominate the basin. Scattered
showers are over Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands.
Isolated moderate convection is inland over Central America from
Guatemala to Panama. Similar convection is over N Colombia. Upper-
level ridging extends northward over the basin from South America
with strong subsidence over the central and eastern Caribbean.

Tradewind flow over the basin remains lighter than normal. As a
result, seas are running fairly low across the area, with the
highest seas of around 5-8 ft occurring near the coast of
Colombia. Only slight change in the weather pattern is expected
during the next couple of days as the surface ridge to the north
remains relatively weak. Seas will build to 10 ft near the coast
of Colombia, however, on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N64W to 28N74W, then
stationary to Fort Pierce Florida near 29N80W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the front. A prefrontal squall line is E of
the front with scattered moderate convection N of 29N between
59W-63W. Elsewhere, a large 1037 mb high is located over the
northeast Atlantic near 37N29W dominating the remainder of the
area. Fair weather and moderate trade winds will prevail over the
tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ and west of 30W.

The western portion of the W Atlantic front is forecast to lift
back to the N as a warm front on Mon and connect with a developing
low pressure system just off South Carolina. The low will move
E-NE on Tue dragging a cold front across Florida. The new cold
front will extend from 31N72W to South Florida by Wed morning, and
dissipate across the Straits of Florida by Thu. Both fronts will
be preceded by fresh to strong SW winds and building seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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