[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 12N17W to 05N20W to
01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W to South America near
00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05S-02N
between 31W-39W, and from 02S-03N between 44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends fron the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to the
NW Gulf of mexico near 29N94W to S Texas near 26N97W. Radar
imagery shows scattered moderate convetion is over the N Gulf N of
26N and E of 92W to include the northern half of Florida. 25 kt N
winds are N of the front. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt
southerly return flow and fair weather.

The front will extend from from Tampa Bay to the SW Gulf near
Veracruz Mexico Sun morning. The front will become nearly
stationary and weaken from near Sarasota Florida to Tampico,
Mexico on Sun night. A second cold front will reach SE Louisiana
on Mon, and move across across the northern Gulf waters on Tue. A
weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal
boundary near 29N86W on Tue, and will move NE across the Florida
Peninsula toward the western Atlantic Ocean on Wed, dragging the
cold front. This front is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay
to Tuxpan, Mexico by Tue evening, from SW Florida to near
Veracruz, Mexico by Wed morning, and weaken as it reaches farther
south in the southeast Gulf late Wed night. Relatively weak high
pres will build in the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate tradewinds dominate the Caribbean basin with
mostly fair weather promoted by upper level ridging extending
northward over the basin from South America. The only exception to
this is over Hispaniola, where scattered showers are over the
higher terrain. Tradewind flow over the basin remains lighter
than normal as low pressure systems moving eastward from the
United States cause the ridge to the north to weaken. As a result,
seas are running fairly low across the area, with the highest
seas of around 5 ft occurring near the coast of Colombia. Little
change in the weather pattern is expected during the next couple
of days as the surface ridge to the north remains weak.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Prefrontal scattered moderate convection has entered the W
Atlantic off the coast of Florida from N of 27N and W of 78W.
Elsewhere, a large 1031 mb high is located over the central
Atlantic near 34N36W dominating the entire basin. Fair weather
and moderate trade winds will prevail over the tropical Atlantic
north of the ITCZ and west of 30W.

A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight,
reaching from 31N76W to near Daytona Beach, FL by Sun morning,
and from near 31N65W to the northern Bahamas Sun night, then stall
and weaken along 28N on Mon. The western portion of the front
will lift back to the N as a warm front through early Tue. Another
cold front will move over the NW waters Mon night into Tue, reach
from near 31N70W to the northern Bahamas and S Florida on Wed,
and extend 29N65W to the central Bahamas on Wed night. Both fronts
will be preceded by fresh to strong SW winds and building seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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