[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 PM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough continues from the border of Sierra Leone and
Guinea on the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N20W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near
02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between
18W-26W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02S-03N
between 31W-34W, and from 01S-03N between 40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure located over the Atlantic is ridging westward across
the Gulf of Mexico from Florida to SRN Texas and NERN Mexico,
producing little cloudiness. Moderate to occasionally fresh E to
SE winds will gradually build to between 4 and 5 ft over the
western Gulf. Otherwise, seas are running in the 2 to 4 foot
range. Winds will slowly veer from the SE and S across the region
through Saturday ahead of the next cold front, which is due to
enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will continue to move SE
then stall from S Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Sun evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-15 kt tradewinds dominates the Caribbean Sea with mostly fair
weather. Mid to upper-level ridging extending northward over the
basin from South America is promoting a generally dry weather
pattern. The only exception to this is over Hispaniola, where a
weak upper-level trough should trigger scattered showers over the
higher terrain especially during evening hours. The trough is
expected to move eastward away from Hispaniola, causing shower
coverage to decrease during the next couple of days. Tradewind
flow over the basin remains lighter than normal as low pressure
systems moving eastward from the United States cause the ridge to
the north to weaken. As a result, seas are running fairly low
across the area, with the highest seas of around 5 ft occurring
near the coast of Colombia. Little change in the weather pattern
is expected during the next couple of days as the ridge to the
north remains weak.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N58W, and extends
southwestward to 28N65W, then continues as a weakening cold front
to 27N70W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
front. A weak surface trough is located SW of the front from
26N70W to the S Bahamas near 21N73W. No significant convection is
currently associated with this trough. Farther east, a weakening
cold front is producing a narrow band of clouds and a few showers
over the Canary Islands from 32N12W to 28N18W. Otherwise, a 1028
mb high pressure system located near 35N36W continues to dominate
the central and eastern Atlantic. Fair weather and moderate trade
winds will prevail over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and W
of 30W. These winds will become fresh by Sun as the high pressure
builds S and SWD over most of the area. The next cold front is
expected to enter the far western Atlantic waters Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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