[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 AM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of
Africa near 07N12W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to
01N23W to 02S40W to the coast of Brazil near 02S51W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is found along the coast
of Brazil from 02S to 02N between 32W and 46W. Isolated moderate
and strong convection is present within 90 nm of a line from
05N11W to 02N27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Apalachicola Florida to the NW
Gulf of Mexico near 25.5N95.5W to just S of Tampico Mexico near
21N97.5W. Cloudiness and isolated showers are occurring along and
N of the front to the W of 90W. Observations from platforms and
buoys show moderate to fresh NE winds to the N of the front. The
remainder of the Gulf S of the front is experiencing light to
moderate E to SE return flow and fair weather.

The cold front is slowing down and will stall over the northern
Gulf today. Convection associated with the front has already
tapered off as the front begins to weaken. High pressure will
build over the SE United States on Thu, then shift E over the
western Atlc on Fri. Light to moderate E winds Thu will veer from
the SE on Fri. Otherwise, weak surface troughing will develop over
the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west over the Bay of
Campeche at night. Otherwise, a generally dry weather pattern is
expected to remain in place through the end of the week and mid to
upper-level ridging slowly builds over the basin from the W. The
next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper-level trough has shifted to the NE of the
Caribbean. This is allowing broad mid to upper-level ridging to
build over the area from the W. As a result, the weather over the
Caribbean will remain relatively dry for the next several days.

The surface high pressure ridge to the N of the area will remain
weakened during the next several days as low pres systems depart
eastward from the United States. This will keep wind speeds over
the basin relatively low in the light to moderate range. Winds
will be moderate to fresh over the south central Caribbean, except
locally strong along the northern Coast of Colombia during the
late night and early morning hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Double barreled 1027 mb high centered over the NW Atlantic near
43N47W and 38N47W ridges WSW over the Bahamas. A surface ridge
curves ESE from this high toward the Iberian Peninsula. This area
of high pressure dominates the Atlantic and will maintain
moderate to fresh trade winds and mostly fair weather over the
tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and west of 25W through Sat. A
cold front will enter the western Atlantic tonight and move into
the central Atlantic on Fri. The southern portion of the front
will stall and weaken over the southern Bahamas, then the front
will weaken and dissipate by Sat. The next cold front will enter
the far NW waters on Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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