[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 AM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 08N13W to 03N20W.
The ITCZ begins near 03N20W and extends to 01N30W to South America
near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
well S of the monsoon trough from 3S-3N between 00W-05W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 2N-5N between 21W-28W, and
from 6S-2N between 34W-41W, and from 1S-3N between 45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic near 32N67W to the
northern Gulf along 30N. Moderate E to SE surface flow covers the
Gulf with mostly fair weather. Return flow over the SW Gulf could
become strong later today in response to deepening low pressure
in the central U.S. Weak surface troughing will develop over the
Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west into the Bay of
Campeche at night. A dry weather pattern is expected to remain in
place for the next two days. A cold front will enter the northwest
Gulf on Wed and reach the southeast Gulf by Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Undersea volcano Kick 'em Jenny, is north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a
permanent 1.5 km or 0.8 nm exclusion zone around the volcano.
Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

Presently, scattered showers are over Hispaniola. More showers
are over the Leeward Islands due to a trough along 64W. Scattered
moderate convection is over Lake Maracaibo Venezuela, and over
portions of N Colombia.

High pressure NE of the area in the Atlantic will maintain fresh
trades in the south-central Caribbean the next few days. Locally
strong winds are possible near the coast of Colombia at night.
Light to moderate trades elsewhere will weaken slightly through
Thu as the ridge weakens. A surface trough along 64W will drift
into the central Caribbean through Wed. Mostly dry weather will
continue over the remainder of the basin the next couple days as
a mid-level ridge extends N over the basin from South America.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N67W. A
ridge axis extends W from the high to N Florida at 30N. A weak
surface trough in the central Atlantic is from 32N50W to 29N54W. A
1021 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 30N36W. Another ridge
axis extends E from this high along 30N to Africa. The trough
will shift eastward the next couple of days. Moderate to fresh
trade winds and mostly fair weather will prevail over the
tropical Atlantic west of 25W through Thu. A cold front will enter
the western Atlantic Wed night and move into the central Atlantic
on Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net