[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 AM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N13W
to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to 00N46W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 260 nm south of the monsoon
trough mainly east of 20W, while scattered showers are noted
within 50 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 34W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the basin from 26N82W to 22N90W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed along
and south of the front mainly south of 24N including the Yucatan
Channel. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the
basin anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 29N91W. To the
southwest, a surface trough extends from 23N93W to 20N93W.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the
basin.

Expect for the front to continue weakening today. The high pres
ridge over the northern Gulf will shift east through Tue,
allowing winds over the Gulf to prevail from the east through the
period. Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan
Peninsula each day, then shift west over the Bay of Campeche
during the evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for
the next few days. Gentle to moderate trades are forecast
elsewhere through Wednesday night. Winds will slightly subside
during this time frame as the ridge weakens. A surface trough,
currently located east of the Windward Islands, will enter the
east Caribbean during the next 24 hours and weaken by mid-week
south of Hispaniola. Relatively dry weather will continue over the
basin for the next couple days as mid to upper-level ridge
currently crossing the basin from Nicaragua and Honduras to Haiti
remains overhead.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N73W to 28N80W. Scattered
showers are noted within 200 nm on either sides of the front.
East of the front, a 1018 mb surface low is centered near 32N54W
with a trough extending from the low to 20N61W. Scattered showers
are expected along and east of the trough from 20N-24N between
51W-57W. Another surface trough is located east of the Windward
Islands extending from 17N58W to 11N60W. This trough only has
some cloudiness and isolated showers associated with it. A surface
ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a
1022 mb high located near 27N40W.

The front will dissipate by Monday. Elsewhere, the high pressure
ridge will maintain moderate to fresh winds over the tropical
Atlantic west of 25W and north of the ITCZ through Monday night.
The trough near the Windward Islands will move west entering the
east Caribbean during the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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