[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria is centered near 42.0N 43.9W at
30/2100 UTC moving east-northeast at 28 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Maria has become an extra-tropical low. See
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for the final forecast/
advisory on this system.

A tropical wave extends across the central Caribbean with its
axis from 23N67W to 10N70W, moving west at 10-15 kt. An upper-
level low W of the wave over Hispaniola is interacting favorably
with the wave, producing scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection from 17N-21N between 64W-67W. This activity the US/UK
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The upper-level low will shift
westward through early Sunday and remain in a favorable position
to continue producing active convection across the area through
the weekend.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends from 20N45W to 08N42W, moving
west at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing and is
moving in tandem with an upper level low centered near 19N44W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N-17N
between 39W-44W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N16W to
08N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N26W
to 06N31W to 07N43W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N-07N between 28W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An active surface trough extends across the SW Gulf, enhancing
scattered moderate convection west of 95W. To the east, an upper-
level low is reflected at the surface as a trough from 29N85W to
24N88W. Southeast of this trough, scattered showers are evident
south of 27N and east of 86W. A broad area of low pressure was
analyzed over the Florida peninsula just west of Cape Canaveral
and extends a trough across the west Atlantic. These features
will keep the NE Gulf convectively active through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Active convection will continue with the tropical wave across
the central Caribbean. Refer to the Special Features section
above for more details about this feature. An elongated trough
extends from the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Honduras and
Central America. Dynamic lift associated with an upper-level low
centered near 16N85W combined with a divergent environment over
Central America and the central portion of the Caribbean is
enhancing convection across the western Caribbean W of 74W.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will persist through the
weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level low is centered near 19N70W. This feature will
continue moving westward as a tropical wave approaches the
island, increasing cloudiness and chances for precipitation this
evening. Expect this scenario to continue through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Refer to
the section above for details. A broad plume of moisture is being
pulled northward across the waters north of the Bahamas by a mid
to upper-level low centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A
surface low centered over central Florida extends a trough over
the W Atlantic to another low near 31N75W, supporting scattered
moderate convection north of 27N and west of 72W. The northern
extension of a tropical wave is enhancing convection across the
waters north of Puerto Rico south of 23N between 64W-67W. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 35N30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net