[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Maria is centered near 40.7N 47.2W at 30/1500 UTC
or about 440 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving east-
northeast at 28 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is north of 36N between 41W-46W.
See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave extends across the eastern Caribbean with its
axis from 23N65W to 10N69W, moving west at about 10 kt. An upper-
level low is centered to the west of the wave over Hispaniola
interacting favorably with the wave producing scattered moderate
convection from 13N-22N between 60W- 70W. This activity is
affecting the Lesser Antilles, US/UK Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. The upper- level low will retrograde westward through early
Sunday and remain in a favorable position to continue producing
active convection across the area through the weekend.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N43W to 08N38W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing 37W-
44W and continues moving beneath the influence of an upper level
low centered near 20N43W. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N-15N between 35W-43W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 16N17W to
08N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N26W to
07N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is north of these
boundaries between 24W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An active surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche
enhancing scattered to numerous moderate convection south of 25N
and west of 94W. To the east, an upper-level low is reflected at
the surface as a trough, that extends from 29N85W to 25N89W.
Southeast of this trough, scattered showers are developing south
of 27N and east of 86W. A broad area of lower surface pressure was
analyzed across the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters
of the west Atlantic. The low is centered just west of Cape
Canaveral and extends a trough across the west Atlantic. These
features will keep the far east Gulf of Mexico active weather-wise
through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Active convection will continue with the tropical wave across the
eastern Caribbean. Refer to the Special Features section above
for more details about this feature. An elongated low pressure
also extends across the Yucatan Channel region then southward
across the Gulf of Honduras and portions of Central America. This
feature was analyzed as a surface trough from 21N87W to 16N88W.
Dynamic lift associated with an upper-level low centered near
16N85W combined with a divergent environment over Central America
and the central portion of the Caribbean is forcing active
convection across much of the western Caribbean west of 75W and
portions of Central America from Honduras westward to Guatemala
and southern Mexico. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will
persist through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level low is centered near 19N70W. This feature will
continue moving westward as a tropical wave approaches the island,
increasing cloudiness and the probability of precipitation
this afternoon and evening. Expect this scenario to continue
through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Refer to
the section above for details. A broad plume of moisture is being
pulled northward across the waters north of the Bahamas by a mid
to upper-level low centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A
surface low is centered over central Florida, extending a trough
over the west Atlantic from 29N81W to 31N77W. These features are
supporting scattered moderate convection north of 27N and west of
72W. The northern extension of a tropical wave is enhancing
convection across the waters north of Puerto Rico south of 22N
between 64W-67W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence
of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near
34N31W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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