[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Sep 30 11:55:53 CDT 2017
WTNT45 KNHC 301654 CCA
TCDAT5
Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 58...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017
Corrected for misspelled word
Maria is on its way to becoming extratropical as cold air continues
to wrap around the circulation. The cloud pattern has become
elongated, while microwave data show that the low- and mid-level
centers are rapidly becoming detached. However, Maria is still able
to produce a small but concentrated area of deep convection just to
the east of the center, and the maximum winds are still estimated at
50-kt. Maria should transition to an extratropical low by later
today or tonight, and then it should be absorbed by a frontal zone
in a couple of days.
The track continues to be straightforward. Maria is embedded in the
fast mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow should steer the cyclone
toward the east-northeast with increasing forward speed until
dissipation or it is absorbed by a cold front.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 40.7N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 42.5N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1200Z 45.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 02/0000Z 47.5N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 02/1200Z 49.0N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Avila
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