[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Maria is centered near 37.2N 63.3 at 29/0900 UTC
or about 304 nm NNE of Bermuda, moving east at 18 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Maria has tropical storm force winds extending up
to 200 nm from the center. Convection associated with Maria is
well north of the discussion area. It is expected to accelerate
eastward and become extra tropical. See the latest NHC Forecast/
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more
details.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 38.3N 52.4W at 29/0900 UTC or
about 703 nm NE of Bermuda. Lee is moving northeast at 22 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Lee is a small tropical
cyclone with numerous moderate convection within 120 nm of the
center. It is expected to accelerate northeastward and weaken. See
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across Cuba to southern
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas is associated with a broad
surface trough interacting with an upper-level low.  A weak area of
low pressure is likely to form from this weather system later today
and move northward near the east coast of the Florida peninsula
through Saturday.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development of this system during the next couple of days,
before upper-level winds become less favorable Saturday night or
Sunday.  Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the northwestern
Bahamas during the next several days. This system has a moderate
chance for tropical development during the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends over the E Atlantic from 17N30W to
04N29W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a very
moist environment, with a sharp 700 mb trough noted in model
guidance. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the
wave axis.

A tropical wave extends over the E Caribbean from 19N61W to
07N63W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a very
moist environment, and is evident in 700 mb wind fields. Westerly
diffluent flow aloft is enhancing convection producing scattered
moderate convection from 06N-20N between 55W-63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 07N20W to 07N30W to 06N36W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36W to
05N40W to 06N46W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 04N-07N between 10W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a stationary front extends from the Florida
Panhandle near 31N86W to the Texas coast near 28N96W. The front
is expected to dissipate during the next 24 hours. High pressure
will build behind the front through Friday. A stationary 1006 mb
surface low is located over the Bay of Campeche near 20N93W with
scattered moderate convection. An area of cloudiness and
convection is developing over the western Caribbean and is
expected to move northward affecting the southeast Gulf during the
next 24-48 hours. Refer to the section above for details. An
upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near
27N86W with strong subsidence. Upper level diffluence SE of this
center is enhancing the convection over the Bahamas and Cuba.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. Refer to the section
above for details. There is also an area of cloudiness and
convection developing over the northwest Caribbean with a moderate
chance for development during the next 48 hours. See the section
above for further details. The eastern extent of the east Pacific
monsoon trough extends into north Colombia with convection.
Isolated moderate convection is over Panama, and northern
Colombia. Expect over the next 24 hours for more showers and
convection to advect over the east Caribbean, while the W
Caribbean continues to have convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves moving across the basin are discussed above.
A plume of moisture being pulled northeast across the Bahamas
and surrounding waters by an upper-level low over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico supports isolated showers west of 76W. Elsewhere,
surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the
central and the eastern Atlantic, anchored by 1025 mb high
pressure centered near 33N38W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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