[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Maria is centered near 36.8N 67.8W at 28/2100 UTC
or about 387 nm east-northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina,
moving east at 11 kt. Minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Maria has tropical
storm force winds extending up to 200 nm from the center.
Convection associated with Maria is well north of the discussion
area. It is expected to accelerate eastward and become
extratropical. See the latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 35.1N 55.8W at 28/2100 UTC or
about 478 nm east-northeast of Bermuda. Lee is moving north-
northeast at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Lee is a
small tropical cyclone with numerous moderate convection within
120 nm of the center. It is expected to accelerate east-
northeastward and weaken. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across Cuba to the Florida
Straits. This area is associated with a broad surface trough
interacting with an upper-level low. A low pressure is likely to
form from this weather system near the Florida Straits on Friday,
and it is forecast to move northward near the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula through Saturday. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for some development during the next couple
of days, before upper-level winds become less favorable on
Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is likely to
produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of central and
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the
northwestern Bahamas during the next several days. This system has
a moderate chance for tropical development during the next 48
hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 16N28W to 04N27W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded in a very moist
environment, with a sharp 700 mb trough noted in model guidance.
Isolated showers are within 180 nm of either side of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis extending from
17N59W to 08N60W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is evident
in 700 mb wind fields. A diffluent flow aloft related to an upper
level low to the west of the wave is enhancing convection within
the wave with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
from 10N-19N between 56W-64W. This activity is affecting the
Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula extending from 18N90W
to 09N90W. This wave is enhancing convection across the peninsula
south of 10N and adjacent EPAC waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 07N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N36W to 08N52W. No significant
convection is related to these features at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front along the Texas coast is expected to stall and
dissipate over the NW Gulf during the next 24-48 hours. High
pressure will build behind the front through Friday. A tropical
wave over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing scattered moderate
convection over the area. A stationary 1007 mb surface low is
located near 20N94W with isolated showers. An area of cloudiness
and convection is developing over the western Caribbean and is
expected to move northward affecting the southeast Gulf during the
next 24-48 hours. Refer to the section above for details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Refer to the section above
for details. There is also an area of cloudiness and convection
developing over the northwest Caribbean with a moderate chance for
development during the next 48 hours. See the section above for
further details. The eastern extent of the east Pacific monsoon
trough extends into north Colombia with convection. Isolated
moderate convection is over Panama, and northern Colombia has
scattered moderate convection. Expect over the next 24 hours for
more showers and convection to advect over the east Caribbean
while the northwest corner will continue with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently fair weather is over Hispaniola. Expect afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves moving across the basin are discussed above.
A plume of moisture being pulled northeast across the Bahamas
and surrounding waters by an upper-level low over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico supports isolated showers west of 76W. Elsewhere,
surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the
central and the eastern Atlantic, anchored by 1024 mb high
pressure centered near 32N40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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