[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
744 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria is centered near 36.5N 71.8W at 28/0000 UTC or
about 195 nm east-northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina,
moving north- northeast at 6 kt. Minimum central pressure is 979
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Maria
is a large tropical cyclone with tropical storm force winds
extending up to 200 nm from the center. Scattered moderate
convection is within 270 nm of the storm in the northeastern
semicircle. Stable air on the southwestern semicircle is resulting
in mainly showers within 300 nm southwest of the center. See the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 31.2N 57.1W at 27/2100 UTC or
about 400 nm E of Bermuda. Lee is moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Lee is a small tropical cyclone with
numerous moderate convection within 120 nm of the center. Lee is
forecast to remain a hurricane through Thursday night as it turns
northeast and accelerates over open ocean. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave off the coast of Africa is along 22W/23W from 16N
to 04N and is moving west at around 15 kt. This wave embedded in
a very moist environment and sharp 700 mb troughing. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm of either side of
the wave axis south of 13N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 48W/50W from 16N
to 06N and is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is evident in
700 mb wind fields and is generating scattered moderate
convection within 180 nm of either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean along 77W/80W from 20N to
09N is moving west at 10 kt. The wave is embedded within a moist
environment and a weak 700 mb trough. Numerous moderate
convection is from 12N to 24N between 75W and 83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W
to 07N22W to 07N33W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends
from 07N33W to 10N46W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near
10N51W to 09N62W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 20N
between 53W and 63W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough that extends from 22N97W to 17N92W supports
scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of either side of the
trough axis. An upper low centered over the east central Gulf
continues to support scattered thunderstorms over the
southeastern Gulf basin. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the
northern Gulf supports gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf
basin, except higher in and around thunderstorm activity. Little
change is expected over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough has moved inland over the Yucatan Peninsula this
afternoon. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean is
supporting unsettled weather over that portion of the basin.
Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Dry
air and subsidence covers the central and most of the eastern
Caribbean, except the Leeward Islands, where an upper low supports
scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure over the
southwest north Atlantic supports moderate to locally fresh trade
winds over most of the Caribbean, except light to gentle winds
over the southwestern Caribbean due to the presence of the E
Pacific monsoon trough axis. Over the next 24 hours thunderstorm
activity over the western Caribbean will become confined and more
concentrated over the northwest Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mainly isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
currently occurring over the island will diminish tonight. Expect
this pattern to repeat again for Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the sections above for information on the two tropical
cyclones over the central and northwest Atlantic, and the two
tropical waves over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. A
plume of deep moisture continues to be pulled N-NE across the
Bahamas and surrounding waters by an upper low over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and southerly flow well to the south of Maria.
This plume combined with upper level diffluence from the upper low
supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N to
30N between 64W and 73W, and scattered moderate convection S of
24N between 74W and 80W. A surface trough extends from 31N75W to
27N80W and is the separating line between northwest flow to the
north, and southerly flow to the south, over the SW N Atlantic
waters. A weak surface trough extends from 30N44W to 26N45W. The
tail end of a stationary front is from 31N28W to 30N33W. Ridging
prevails across much of the remainder of the central and the
eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 32N39W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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