[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria is centered near 35.6N 72.6W at 27/1500 UTC or
about 145 nm east of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving north-
northeast at 5 kt. Minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Maria is a large
tropical cyclone with maximum winds extending well northeast of
the center. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm of
the storm in the eastern semicircle. Stable air on the western
semicircle is resulting in mainly showers within 300 nm west of
the center. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 30.6N 56.8W at 27/1500 UTC or
about 420 nm ESE of Bermuda. Lee is moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Lee is a small tropical cyclone
with numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of the
center. Lee is forecast to remain a hurricane the next two days
as it moves north then northeast over open ocean. See the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave off the coast of Africa along 21W is moving west
at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows deep moisture associated with
the wave. A low level trough is also present. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-11N
between 17W-20W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic along 46W is moving west
at 10 kt. This wave is evident in 700 mb wind fields. A dry and
stable environment covers the northern portion of the wave.
Scattered showers are south of 13N between 46W-50W.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean along 76W-77W is moving
west at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a moist area and a
weak 700 mb trough. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm
west of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N13W
to 07N24W to 09N34W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends
from 11N47W to 08N61W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 04N-07N between 13W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the southeastern U.S. and a broad area of low
pressure over Central America is supporting moderate easterly
winds over the basin. A surface trough over the Bay of Campeche
is producing convection over the SW Gulf. An upper level low is
centered in the NE Gulf near 28N83W. Upper level diffluence SE
of the upper low is producing showers and convection over W Cuba
and the Straits of Florida. Expect showers and convection to
increase over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the W Caribbean from 21N88W to 15N88W.
A large area of moderate to isolated strong convection is over
the NW Caribbean, Cayman Islands, and Jamaica, from 14N-21N
between 77W-85W. Much of this convection is being enhanced by
upper level diffluence. A tropical wave is over the central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Windward
Islands, while Puerto Rico has fair weather. Isolated moderate
convection is from 11N-14N between 77W-83W. Expect continued
showers and convection over the W Caribbean and Central America
W of 75W through Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather currently over Hispaniola will become mostly cloudy
with afternoon and evening showers later today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See above for information on two tropical cyclones and tropical
waves. A plume of deep moisture is being pulled N-NE across the
Bahamas and surrounding waters by an upper low over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and southerly flow well to the south of Maria.
This plume combined with upper level diffluence from the upper
low supports scattered showers from 22N-28N, west of 72W. A weak
surface trough extends from 30N42W to 25N45W. The tail end of a
stationary front is from 31N30W to 30N34W. Ridging prevails
across much of the remainder of the central and the eastern
Atlantic, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 33N41W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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