[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
755 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Maria is centered near 34.6N 72.9W at 27/0000 UTC
or about 135 nm east-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina,
moving north at 6 kt. Minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Maria is a very
large cyclone with tropical storm-force winds extending outward up
to 200 nm from the center. Scattered moderate convection is
within 330 nm of the storm in the eastern semicircle. Stable air
on the western semicircle is resulting in mainly showers within
300 nm west of the center. Buoy data indicates seas of 15 ft
extending nearly 300 nm southeast of the center, with 8 ft seas
about 420 nm south and southeast of the center. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 29.9N 54.6W at 26/2100 UTC or
about 545 nm east of Bermuda. Lee is moving to the west at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Lee is a small cyclone with
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection confined to
within 90 nm of the center. Lee is forecast to remain a hurricane
the next couple of days as it turns toward the west- northwest by
Wednesday, then turns north then northeast on Thursday. See the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave exited off the coast of Africa earlier today and
has an axis extending along 17W/18W from 13N to 04W, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection are from 09N to 13N, east of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends along 42W/44W from 18N to 06N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. This wave is well defined in 700 mb wind
fields. A fairly dry and stable environment covers the northern
portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is south of
11N between 40W and 49W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 71W/72W, from
19N to 09N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is embedded
within a weak 700 mb trough. Isolated moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the wave axis north of 15N, and is partially due
to upper level diffluence over the region.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W
to 10N26W to 09N47W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends
from 09N47W to 09N61W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N
between 50W and 56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 10N to 14N between 51W and 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper low over the eastern Gulf supports scattered
thunderstorms south of 28N, east of 90W. Afternoon thunderstorm
activity over SE Mexico has moved offshore over the Bay of
Campeche. Otherwise, weak ridging extends from Ohio Valley high
pressure, southwestward over the northern Gulf, supporting gentle
to moderate winds over the basin outside of thunderstorm activity.
Over the next 24 hours thunderstorms will continue over the
southeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please refer to
the tropical waves section for details. A surface trough extends
from 21N82W to 12N82W and is located under a broad upper level
anticyclone that is supportive of widely scattered thunderstorms
across much of the western Caribbean. A ridge of high pressure
over the SW N Atlantic supports moderate to locally fresh trades
over the Caribbean, except gentle winds over the southwest
Caribbean near the E Pacific monsoon trough. Little change is
expected over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave is crossing the island today supporting isolated
showers and thunderstorms. The wave will move west of the island
on Wednesday. However, upper level conditions will support
additional mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
on Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the tropical waves section above for details. Tropical Storm
Maria in the western Atlantic and Hurricane Lee in the central
Atlantic are discussed in the special features section above. A
plume of moisture is being pulled northeast across the bahamas and
surrounding waters by an upper low over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and by low level southerly flow well to the south of
Maria. This plume combined with upper level diffluence from the
upper low supports numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
from 22N to 28N, west of 71W. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails
across much of the remainder of the central and the eastern
Atlantic, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 34N44W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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