[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria is centered near 30.0N 73.0W at 25/0300 UTC or
about 335 nm south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina,
moving north at 7 kt. Minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 135 nm of the center. See the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 31.1N 49.5W at 25/0300 UTC or
about 782 nm east of Bermuda moving east-southeast at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the center. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N29W to 08N31W, moving
west at around 10 kt. The wave is supported by 700 mb troughing
and weak 850 mb vorticity north of 14N in the vicinity of the
wave axis. Little convection is associated with the wave axis at
this time.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N62W to 08N63W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The wave is on the southwestern periphery of a
700 mb ridge and the western periphery of an upper-level trough
axis extending from 22N54W deep into the tropics to near 04N56W.
Scattered moderate convection from 07N-12N between 55W-62W is
likely associated with the upper-level trough already in place.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to
09N36W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 09N36W to
08N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-15N between
16W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper-level low is noted on water vapor imagery over
southern Alabama, extending a trough axis across the central Gulf
to the northern Yucatan peninsula. A very weak pressure pattern
exists across the entire basin, resulting in gentle to moderate
easterly winds and areas of isolated showers under the influence
of the mid-level lifting dynamics in place. Little change is
expected in overall conditions. By Tuesday night into
Wednesday, easterly flow will increase slightly into moderate to
occasional fresh conditions as ridging noses in from the lower
Mississippi River valley region into the eastern Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the section
above for details. Southwest flow aloft prevails west of 75W, and
a weak pressure pattern remains in place across the central and
western Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle
winds across the western half of the basin while moderate to fresh
winds prevail east of 75W. A surface trough was analyzed from
16N75W to 11N74W and continues to be the focus for scattered
showers between 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough southwest of the island enhanced showers across
southern portions of the island. The trough will slide further
westward through the next 24 hours as weak ridging builds in from
the central Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details. Outside the influence of Maria in the west
Atlantic and Lee in the central Atlantic, surface ridging prevails
across much of the remainder of the region. A 1022 mb high is
centered east- northeast from Bermuda near 36N58W and a 1023 mb
high is centered across the east Atlantic near 33N23W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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