[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241620
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Maria is centered near 28.7N 72.9W at 24/1500 UTC or
about 260 nm ENE of Great Abaco Island and about 415 nm SSE of
Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt
with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is
within 135 nm of center. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 25N-33N between 67W-77W. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 31.4N 49.9W at 24/1500 UTC or
about 760 nm E of Bermuda and about 1195 nm WSW of the Azores
moving SE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 982 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 30N-33N between 47W-52W.
See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 08N30W to 21N26W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with amplified 700 mb troughing between 22W-34W
and with global models indicating weak 850 mb vorticity N of 14N
in the vicinity of the wave axis. No significant deep convection
is associated with the wave axis at this time. Ongoing deep
convection remains near the monsoon trough axis and will be
mentioned below.

Tropical wave extends from 07N60W to 18N58W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave remains on the southwestern periphery of a 700 mb ridge
anchored near 22N44W and lies on the western periphery of an
upper level trough axis extending from 22N54W to a broad base
deep in the tropics over Suriname near 04N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-12N between 53W-61W...and is more likely
associated with the upper level troughing in place.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
13N17W to 07N35W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 07N35W to 06N43W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 07N-13N between 13W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery
centered over southern Alabama and Mississippi near 31N88W with a
trough axis extending southward over the central Gulf to a broad
base over the northern Yucatan peninsula. An overall weak
pressure pattern across the basin is resulting in gentle to
moderate easterly winds with areas of scattered showers and tstms
generally occurring from 26N-31N between 84W-89W under the
influence of the middle to upper level lifting dynamics in place.
W of 90W...dry and stable northerly flow aloft and generally
gentle to moderate E-SE winds are providing for fair conditions
and mostly clear skies this afternoon. Through the remainder of
the weekend into the middle of next week...little change is
expected in overall conditions. By Tuesday night into
Wednesday...E-SE flow will increase slightly into moderate to
occasional fresh breeze conditions as ridging noses in from the
lower Mississippi River valley region into the eastern Gulf
Wednesday into Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails W of 75W this afternoon as an
overall weak pressure pattern remains in place across the central
and western Caribbean. As a result of the weaker pressure
pattern...winds remain generally light to gentle and variable at
times. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 11N74W to 17N74W and
continues providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms
between 71W-76W. Farther west...skies remain mostly clear with
fair conditions prevailing this afternoon...however a few
isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of 14N W of 76W as
weaker lower pressure prevails across much of Central America.
Finally...a tropical wave currently along 60W will continue
approaching the Lesser Antilles through tonight into Monday
morning and increase the probability of scattered showers and
tstms for the Windward Islands and portions of eastern Venezuela.
Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh SE winds will prevail E
of 72W.

...HISPANIOLA...
A surface trough currently extends from the southwestern coast
near 17N74W to 11N74W across the central Caribbean Sea and
continues to provide focus for scattered showers and tstms across
southern portions of the island and adjacent coastal waters this
afternoon. The troughing will slide westward through tonight as
weak ridging builds in from the central Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Outside the influence of Maria across the SW North Atlc waters...
and Lee centered in the vicinity of 31N50W...surface ridging
prevails across much of the remainder of the central and eastern
Atlc. A 1020 mb high is centered E-NE from Bermuda near 34N58W
and a 1021 mb high is centered across the central Atlc near
28N39W. In addition...an upper level trough is noted on water
vapor imagery near 25N53W generating scattered showers and tstms
from 23N-29N between 42W-49W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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