[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria centered near 22.8N 71.2W at 22/1800 UTC, or
about 78 nm N of Grand Turk Island, moving NNW at 8 kt. Minimum
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110
kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90
nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 180 nm of the center. The Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas are presently under a hurricane warning. The
central Bahamas are under a tropical storm warning. Please see the
latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for the complete details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose is centered near 39.3N 69.3W at
22/1800 UTC, or about 117 nm SSE of Nantucket, Massachusetts,
stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Dry and stable air
prevails near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs, however some
scattered moderate convection is within 135 nm E of Jose and 300
nm W of it. Jose is expected to meander well off the coast of New
England for the next several days. Please see the latest NHC
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and
the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with axis extending
from 17N16W to 05N18W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is under a
moist area as seen by SSMI TPW imagery. Isolated moderate
convection is from 05N-12N between 12W-20W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 20N42W to 06N44W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is under a
moist area as seen by SSMI TPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 240 nm of the axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
12N16W to 07N24W to 06N30W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 06N30W to 08N49W, then resumes from 10N52W to
11N60W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered moderate convection is from 05N- 08N between
31W-33W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N
between 42W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over North Carolina near 35N82W.
Surface ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico N of 24N. Scattered
moderate convection is over portions of S Florida, and the SE Gulf
of Mexico. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from
21N94W to 17N92W. scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough. Surface winds over most of the Gulf are only 5-10 kt. The
Bay of Campeche has some 15 kt winds. In the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 86W. Upper
level moisture is S of 26N, while strong moisture is N of 26N.
Expect additional convection over Florida over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The core of Hurricane Maria is N of the Turks and Caicos Islands,
however, the outer rain bands continue over Puerto Rico and
Dominican Republic, with the potential for flash flooding. Widely
scattered moderate convection is S of Puerto Rico from 14N-18N
between 65W-69W. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough
extends across Costa Rica, Panama through Colombia supporting
isolated showers over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean with
axis along 86W. Some scattered showers are E of the trough axis
near Jamaica due to upper level diffluence.

...HISPANIOLA...

The Government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all
warnings for the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm force winds
are now N of the island over the Atlantic. Scattered showers
remain over most of Hispaniola. Expect showers to continue for the
next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose. A 1016 mb low,
the remnants of Lee, is located near 30N49W. A surface trough
extends S from the low to 25N50W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 25N-31N between 47W-50W. The remainder of the
basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high
centered north of the area. Of note in the upper levels, a large
upper level low is centered near 23N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is E of this center from 20N-26N between 41W-46W due
to upper level diffluence.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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