[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria centered near 20.9N 70.0W at 22/0000 UTC, or
about 74 nm NNE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, or about 70
nm ESE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 8 kt. Minimum central
pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with
gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within
90 nm of the center except within 120 nm in the S quadrant.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of the
center except within 300 nm in the SE quadrant. The center of
Maria will continue to remain offshore of the Dominican Republic
tonight, moving near the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern
Bahamas through Friday. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for the complete details.

Tropical Storm Jose centered near 39.6N 68.1W at 22/0000 UTC, or
about 130 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts, moving W at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and stable air prevails
near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs, however some scattered
moderate convection is between 120 nm and 270 nm in the NW
semicircle of Jose. Tropical storm force winds associated with
Jose extend out far from the center, up to 180 nm in the NW
quadrant. Jose is forecast to continue to lose tropical
characteristics, likely becoming post-tropical by Fri afternoon.
Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending S
of 18N along 41W moving W at around 10 kt. The tropical wave is
located in a region of abundant moisture as depicted by SSMI TPW
imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm E of the
tropical wave axis and within 120 nm W of the tropical wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
10N14W to 06N24W to 06N31W. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 06N31W to 09N39W, then resumes from 09N43W to
10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between
23W and 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure area is centered over the upper
Mississippi Valley, extending a ridge S-SW to along coastal Texas.
A weak surface trough was analyzed in the Gulf of Mexico from
28N85W to 24N89W. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring on the NW
side of the trough. Aloft, a middle to upper level trough extends
from S central Virginia to central Louisiana with isolated
convection across the Florida Panhandle which should diminish with
the arrival of sunset. Elsewhere aloft, W-NW flow prevails around
an upper level anticyclone positioned over southern Mexico. Mainly
gentle to moderate E to SE flow prevails across the basin, along
with 2 to 4 ft seas W of 90W, and 2 ft or less E of 90W. The
surface trough is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Maria remains N of the area N of Hispaniola with
troughing reaching from southern Hispaniola to the S central
Caribbean just N of the coast of Colombia. Very heavy rainfall
resulting in continuous flash flooding remains over Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. Aloft, a middle to upper level trough
extends into the area across central Cuba to eastern Honduras with
dry and stable air over the NW Caribbean behind the trough. An
upper level anticyclone is located near the NW coast of Colombia
with anticyclonic flow found elsewhere across the basin.
Mainly moderate trades prevail across the basin which will persist
for the start of the upcoming weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with
Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the
tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very
heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently
concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading westward
across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist into the
first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the special
features section for more information on Hurricane Maria.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from
31N73W to the gulf stream between the NW Bahamas and Florida near
26N80W. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring mainly NW of the
trough axis. The remainder of the basin remains under the
influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high pressure area centered at
the surface near 36N50W. Aloft, middle to upper level troughing
is present NW of Maria, W of mainly 70W, while upper ridging
extends from N to S to the E of Maria along 63W/64W.

Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee are centered near
21N49W with elongated troughing extending N of the remnant low to
30N. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are noted N of 21N
to the E of the trough to 39W. No redevelopment of the remnants is
anticipated during the next couple of days while the surface low
gradually dissipates.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Lewitsky
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