[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 21/0000 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 18.9N 67.5W or
about 48 nm ENE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 11 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt
with gusts to 115 kt, Category 2. Numerous strong convection is
within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. On
the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Maria will continue to
move away from the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this
evening.  The core will then pass offshore of the northeastern
coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday and then
move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas
Thursday night and Friday.  Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

At 21/0000 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 125 nm SSE
of Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.4N 68.6W, moving northeast
at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring in the NW quadrant of the storm
from 39N-44N between 67W-73W. On the forecast track, the center
of Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southern New
England during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the East Atlantic with axis near 35W from
about 06N to 21N, moving westward at about 20 kt.  The wave is
well-defined in both the SUNY-Albany 700 mb trough diagnostics
as well as a maxima in the total precipitable water imagery on
the east side of the wave axis.  The wave also has a surface
trough as observed by the earlier ASCAT scatterometer data.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
between 10N and 15N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over Central America with the axis near 88W
from about 10N to 20N, moving westward at about 5-10 kt.  The
wave is apparent in the SUNY-Albany 700 mb trough diagnostics,
but not distinguishable in the total precipitable water imagery.
There may be a surface trough associated with the wave as well,
though it is difficult to disentangle it from the diurnal trough
setting up over the Yucatan.  Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection has been developing in the last few hours over
Central America south of 17N within 180 nm of the axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
12N27W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 10N32W.  The ITCZ
breaks at the tropical wave near 35W and then starts again at
08N39W to 08N55W.  Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is occurring within
60 nm of the ITCZ betwen 38W and 43W.  Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring off of the coast of
Guinea north of 08N east of 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak trough of low pressure extends from the central Florida
peninsula near 27N82W to 26N87W. Isolated showers are occurring
within 60 nm of the trough. Elsewhere no significant convection
is occurring.  Winds are weak and easterly across the Gulf this
evening. Expect little change over the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

the core of dangerout Hurricane maria is gradually moving away
from Puerto Rico.  Conditions are now deteriorating over eastern
Dominican Republic. See the special features section for further
details. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is
over Costa Rica and Panama. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Scatterometer
data shows mainly light to gentle trade winds west of 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from
Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata.  A tropical storm warning is in
effect for Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the
northern border with Haiti as well as from west of Cabo Engano
to Punta Palenque.  A hurricane watch is in effect for Dominican
Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano. A dangerous storm surge
accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water
levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide levels in the
hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic
and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E
Hispaniola E of 70W, spreading W, due to Maria. Expect the
entire island to be under rainbands over the the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1008 mb low - the
remnants of Lee - is located near 18N47W.  No significant deep
convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a Low
chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two
days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from
31N46W to 23N47W in association with an upper-level trough.
Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection is observed
within 300 nm east of the trough. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores
high centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea
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