[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 20/1200 UTC, major Hurricane Maria is located near 18.2N
66.1W or about 13 nm SSW of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 9 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 921 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 130 kt
with gusts to 160 kt, a Category 4. Numerous strong convection
is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere within 175 nm of the center. Maria is moving across
Puerto Rico today, and will pass just north of the northeast
coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Please see
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 20/1200 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 143 nm
south of Nantucket Massachusetts near 38.8N 70.2W, moving
northeast at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 70 kt.
Scattered moderate convection lays on the NW quadrant of the
storm from 38N to 41N between 70W and 75W. The center of Jose is
expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today,
and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts Thursday. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...GALE WARNING...

A 1008 mb low in the central Atlc, or the remnants of former
tropical cyclone Lee, are located near 18N46W. Showers and
thunderstorms have significantly decreased near the low pressure
area the last couple of hours. Scattered moderate convection and
tstms are in the NE quadrant of the low center from 17N to 25N
between 40W and 46W. Gale-force winds prevails in the NE quadrant
of the low...within 270 nm of the center. An increase in the
organization of the deep convection would result in the
regeneration of Lee as it moves northward over the central
Atlantic Ocean. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone re-
development within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 18N27W
to 06N27W, moving west at 20 kt. CIRA LPW imagery show dry air
has increased in the wave environment the last couple of hours
due to intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust. This is limiting
the convection to scattered moderate SW of the wave axis from
05N to 12N between 28W and 32W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from
20N85W to 07N88W, moving west at 20 kt. CIRA TPW imagery
indicates the presence of dry air in the wave environment that
along with strong subsidence from aloft, and strong vertical wind
shear support lack of convection in the far NW Caribbean W of
84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
12N16W to 11N28W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42W to
09N48W to 09N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 11N
between 32W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with
light and variable winds over most of the basin. Ridging aloft
over the entire Gulf along with dry air subsidence continue to
support clear skies, except for scattered showers and tstms over
the Bay of Campeche due to proximity of a tropical wave that
already moved over the EPAC waters S of Mexico. Winds will shift
from SE to E Thursday afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 4 Hurricane Maria is moving across Puerto Rico this
morning. The eye of Maria is forecast to exit Puerto Rico by the
north during the afternoon hours, and pass just north of the
northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
See the special features section for further details. Low level
wind convergence east of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean
is producing a large area of isolated showers and tstms in the SW
Caribbean from S of 15N W of 77W. Scatterometer data shows mainly
light to gentle trade winds west of 71W, with the remainder of
the basin N of 12N experiencing cyclonic winds associated with
Hurricane Maria.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are in the Mona Passage and E Dominican
Republic adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails across
the island. However, weather conditions will deteriorate across
the Island this morning associated with the rainbands of
Hurricane Maria moving across Puerto Rico. These showers will
increase as the system moves NW very close of the Island on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricanes Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. There is a gale warning
associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Lee along
with scattered moderate convection. See gale warning section
above. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from
32N41W to 30N42W to 25N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed east of the trough north of 23N between 38W-44W. The
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad
surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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