[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Jose Local Statement Advisory Number 59
National Weather Service Taunton MA  AL122017
1058 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This product covers Southern New England

**JOSE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barnstable MA, Block
      Island RI, Dukes MA, and Nantucket MA

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 230 miles south of Nantucket MA
    - 37.9N 70.8W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 40 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Jose has weakened to a tropical storm and is forecast to track at
least 125 miles south of Nantucket on Wednesday. The main impacts of
Jose will be felt on Cape Cod and the Islands and will be similar to
those of a strong nor'easter, with coastal flooding, beach erosion,
locally heavy rainfall, and strong wind gusts.

The strongest winds will occur Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with
gusts to 60 mph possible on Nantucket and 45 to 55 mph gusts on Cape
Cod, Marthas Vineyard and Block Island. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches are
possible on Nantucket and Cape Cod.

Severe beach erosion will occur along the coastlines of southeast
Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with areas of minor to moderate
coastal flooding, especially Nantucket.

On the coastal waters south and southeast of New England, seas will be
20 to 25 feet. The combination of high seas and strong winds will
result in life-threatening conditions.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
On Wednesday's high tide cycle, we are expecting minor coastal
flooding in Nantucket harbor and pockets of minor coastal flooding
elsewhere along the coastline. However, the biggest impact on the
tides will be from Wednesday night through Thursday night, with
storm surge of 2 to 3 feet on those cycles for Cape Cod and the
Islands, highest at Nantucket.

For Nantucket Harbor, we anticipate minor coastal flooding on
Wednesday and then minor to moderate coastal flooding Wednesday
night through Thursday night. A storm surge of 2 to 3 feet is likely
Wednesday night through Thursday night. A persistent north to
northeast wind with tropical storm force gusts will hinder the
evacuation of the water from the harbor between tides.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Jose will bring large waves, possibly 15 to 20 feet, to ocean exposed
beaches across southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Severe beach
erosion will occur. Some protective dunes may be at risk of being
overtopped or eroded away. Dangerous rip currents will occur at the
beaches. It appears that later in the week, what is expected to be
Post-Tropical Storm Jose may linger well offshore of New England and
thus the threat of beach erosion and rip currents will be prolonged,
likely lasting through the upcoming weekend and perhaps even into early
next week.

More specifically,

Cape Cod Outer Coast (Eastham to Chatham) and Martha's Vineyard
south side:

We anticipate an accumulated moderate to possibly severe erosion
episode for the next several high tide cycles (mainly Wednesday
through Thursday). Some lingering beach erosion is possible for
Friday's high tide cycles. Waves will build to between 15 and 20
feet just offshore Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

Nantucket:

We anticipate an accumulated severe erosion episode along the south
and east sides of Nantucket with waves up to 20 feet just offshore
for the Wednesday night through Thursday night high tide cycles.
Continued beach erosion is likely through the Friday high tide
cycles, although probably not as severe. Of particular significance
is that this is expected to be such a long duration episode.

* WIND:
Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible on Nantucket with 45 to 55 mph on
Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. More
important than the magnitude, though, is the fact that wind gusts
above 40 mph are expected to continue over Cape Cod and the Islands for
a prolonged period, through Friday. Winds may be strong enough to
knock down some trees, large branches, and power lines. Scattered power
outages are expected to occur.

* FLOODING RAIN:
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Cape Cod and Nantucket,
where 2 to 4 inches of rain are possible with higher amounts possible
on Nantucket. On Wednesday, there is some uncertainty as to how close
the main rain shield associated with the northwest fringe of Jose will
come to Cape Cod and the Islands. There is the possibility it could
remain just offshore, which would reduce rainfall totals. A slight
shift to the west could mean more rainfall than the 2 to 4 inches.
Localized flash flooding in urban areas is possible.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
You should be prepared to follow any local instructions from emergency
management officials.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
All outside preparations should be complete. All mariners should be in
port and boat owners should have ensured that boats are moored very
securely or removed from the water.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Taunton MA around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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