[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 19/2100 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located near 16.8N 64.0W or
about 70 nm southeast of Saint Croix, moving west-northwest at 9
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, a Category 5.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the
center. The tiny eye of Maria will approach St. Croix in the US
Virgin Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 19/2100 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 235 nm east-
northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina near 37.2N 71.3W,
moving north-northeast at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts
to 80 kt. Convection associated with Jose is well north of the
discussion area. The center of Jose is expected to remain well
offshore and pass well to the east of the northeast U.S. coast
through Thursday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave west of Africa extends from 19N21W to 07N25W,
and is moving west at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a region of
abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave
as it interacts with the convergence zone is from 07N-13N
between 21W-25W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis
extending from 21N82W to 11N85W, moving west at 10-15 kt. CIRA
TPW imagery indicates extensive dry air in the northern wave
environment. Shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft support
isolated convection south of 15N between 80W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
17N16W to 09N29W to 09N44W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging with light to gentle anticyclonic winds
prevail in the basin around a 1017 mb high centered near 28N88W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of Campeche and west of
the Yucatan peninsula are associated with the northern part of a
tropical wave in EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf
along with dry air subsidence will continue to support fair
weather conditions through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 5 major Hurricane Maria is moving across the northeast
Caribbean waters, and will approach St. Croix in the US Virgin
Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday. See the
special features section for further details. Low level wind
convergence east of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean is
producing a large area of moderate to strong convection in the
SW Caribbean from 10N-14N between 79W-82W. Expect the wave to
continue moving west with convection mainly east-southeast of
the wave axis. Scatterometer data shows mainly light to gentle
trade winds west of 70W, with the remainder of the basin
experiencing cyclonic winds associated with Hurricane Maria.

...HISPANIOLA...

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are diminishing across the
western past of the Dominican Republic. Weather conditions will
deteriorate significantly across the island Wednesday from the
outer rainbands of Hurricane Maria. The eye of Maria is forecast
to move northwest, passing over or very close to the northern
coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday with destructive winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricanes Maria and Jose. The remnant circulation of T.D. Lee
is located near 17N45W and are expected to move northwest during
the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
within 200 nm east and northeast of the low center. A surface
trough over the central Atlantic extends from 32N41W to 29N42W
to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the
trough north of 26N between 35W-40W. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered
north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
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