[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Jose Local Statement Advisory Number 58
National Weather Service Taunton MA  AL122017
600 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

This product covers Southern New England

**Rain and wind increasing across southeast New England with biggest
 impacts expected across Cape Cod and the Islands**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled for Eastern
      Plymouth MA, Newport RI, Southern Bristol MA, Southern Plymouth
      MA, and Washington RI

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barnstable MA, Block
      Island RI, Dukes MA, and Nantucket MA

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 285 miles south-southwest of Nantucket MA
    - 37.2N 71.3W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 25 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The appearance of Hurricane Jose on satellite imagery has improved
during the day today. However, there still is confidence that Jose will
begin to slowly weaken once it moves north of the Gulf Stream and track
at least 125 miles south of Nantucket on Wednesday. Tropical Storm
Warnings have now been confined to Cape Cod and the Islands, including
Block Island. The main impacts of Jose will be felt on Cape Cod and the
Islands and will be similar to those of a strong nor'easter, with
coastal flooding, beach erosion, locally heavy rainfall, and strong
wind gusts. It will then crawl to the east while slowly weakening, but
this will keep a persistent strong northeast wind blowing across Cape
Cod and the Islands, right through Friday.

In the short term, bands of rain will move across eastern
Massachusetts and Rhode Island tonight. Winds will continue to increase
along the southeast coastline. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
overnight.

On Wednesday, peak wind gusts will reach 55 to 60 mph on Nantucket and
45 to 55 mph gusts on Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.
Across the rest of interior southeastern Massachusetts and southern
Rhode Island, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph can be expected.

Rainfall will be heaviest on Cape Cod and Nantucket, where 2 to
4 inches are possible with locally higher amounts.

Severe beach erosion will occur along the coastlines of southeast
Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with areas of minor to moderate
coastal flooding, especially Nantucket.

On the coastal waters south and southeast of New England, seas will be
20 to 25 feet. The combination of high seas and strong winds will
result in life-threatening conditions.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
On Wednesday's high tide cycle, we are expecting minor coastal flooding
in Nantucket harbor and pockets of minor coastal flooding elewhere
along the coastline. However, we are forecasting the biggest impact on
the tides from Wednesday night through Thursday night, with storm surge
of 2 to 3 feet on those cycles for Cape Cod and the Islands, highest
at Nantucket.

For Nantucket Harbor, we anticipate minor coastal flooding on
Wednesday and then minor to moderate coastal flooding Wednesday
night through Thursday night. A storm surge of 2 to 3 feet is likely
Wednesday night through Thursday night. A persistent north to
northeast wind with tropical storm force gusts will hinder the
evacuation of the water from the harbor between tides.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for coastal Plymouth County,
where minor coastal flooding is likely Wednesday night through Thursday
night. Storm surges of up to 2 feet are possible there.

Pockets of minor coastal flooding are possible in the Boston Harbor
area as well as the Rhode Island and Massachusetts south coasts.
A storm surge of around 1 foot is likely in these areas.

North of Boston, only isolated pockets of minor coastal flooding are
anticipated for the Wednesday night and Thursday high tides.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:

Jose will likely bring large waves, possibly 15 to 20 feet, to ocean
exposed beaches across southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Severe beach erosion will occur. Some protective dunes may be at
risk of being overtopped or eroded away. Dangerous rip currents will
occur along the entire Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastline. It
appears that later in the week, what is expected to be Post-Tropical
Storm Jose may linger well offshore of New England and thus the
threat of beach erosion and rip currents will be prolonged, likely
lasting through the upcoming weekend and perhaps even into early
next week.

High Surf Advisories have been issued for the Rhode Island coast and
along portions of the Massachusetts coastline outside of the Tropical
Storm Warning area.

More specifically,

Rhode Island Coast from Westerly to Newport and Westport, MA
shoreline:

We will continue to see an increase in swells approaching the coast
as Jose slowly drifts a little farther north.  We anticipate that
there will be erosion for the next several high tide cycles but do
not anticipate any serious risk to lives or property.

Cape Cod Outer Coast (Eastham to Chatham) and Martha's Vineyard
south side:

We anticipate an accumulated moderate to possibly severe erosion
episode for the next several high tide cycles (mainly Wednesday
through Thursday). Some lingering beach erosion is possible for
Friday's high tide cycles. Waves will build to between 15 and 20
feet just offshore Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

Nantucket:

We anticipate an accumulated severe erosion episode along the south
and east sides of Nantucket with waves up to 20 feet just offshore
for the Wednesday night through Thursday night high tide cycles.
Continued beach erosion is likely through the Friday high tide
cycles, although probably not as severe. Of particular significance
is that this is expected to be such a long duration episode.

North of Boston:
Minor beach erosion remains a possibility for the Plum Island and
Salisbury areas.

* WIND:

Wind gusts are forecast to reach 55 to 60 mph on Nantucket and
45 to 55 mph on Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected across the
rest of interior southeastern Massachusetts and in southern Rhode
Island. More important than the magnitude, though, is the fact that
wind gusts above 40 mph are expected to continue over Cape Cod and
the Islands for a prolonged period, through Friday.

Winds may be strong enough to knock down some trees, large branches,
and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected to occur.

Farther inland, outside of the tropical storm force wind threat
area, because of the full foliage, there could still be some impacts
from gusty winds that could down some tree limbs. As a result,
Wind Advisories may be needed for interior areas as far west as
Boston to Providence.

Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
southern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts, especially across
Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod.

* FLOODING RAIN:

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Cape Cod and Nantucket, where
2 to 4 inches of rain are possible with higher amounts possible on
Nantucket. Bands of heavy rain will occur tonight. On Wednesday,
there is some uncertainty as to how close the main rain shield
associated with the northwest fringe of Jose will come to Cape Cod and
the Islands. There is the possibility it could remain just offshore,
which would reduce rainfall totals. A slight shift to the west could
mean more rainfall than the 2 to 4 inches. Localized flash flooding
in urban areas is possible.

Farther to the west, 1 to 2 inches of rain is forecast across Rhode
Island and southeast Massachusetts. Much less rain is expected in
western and central Massachusetts and northern Connecticut.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

You should be prepared to follow any local instructions from emergency
management officials.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
All outside preparations should be complete. All mariners should be in
port and boat owners should have ensured that boats are moored very
securely or removed from the water.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Taunton MA around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
Field
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