[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Jose Local Statement Advisory Number 54
National Weather Service New York NY  AL122017
542 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut

**Tropical Storm Watches Remain in Effect for Eastern Long Island and Southeast
Connecticut**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Nassau, Westchester,
      and Fairfield counties.

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Northeastern Suffolk,
      Northern Middlesex, Northern New London, Northwestern Suffolk,
      Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven,
      Southern New London, and Southwestern Suffolk

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 440 miles south-southeast of New York City NY or about
      430 miles south of Montauk Point NY
    - 34.8N 71.1W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Jose will continue to track slowly north through the
western Atlantic waters through mid week, passing to the southeast of
the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a tropical storm. The
system will be close enough for potential impacts, including tropical
storm force winds, coastal flooding, and heavy rainfall. The best
chance for tropical storm conditions will be across the Twin Forks
of Suffolk County Long Island and coastal southeast Connecticut.

Tropical Storm Force winds are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
with sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph and gusts up to 50 mph.

Heavy rain bands may move in as early as the Tuesday morning rush, but
the heaviest rain is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday with 1 to
3 inches possible. Localized flash flooding is also possible.

Areas of 1 to 2 feet inundation are likely with the Tuesday night and
Wednesday high tide cycles across tidal portions of Southeast New
York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Localized
inundation of up to 3 feet is possible in the typically more
vulnerable locations along the south shore back bays of Long Island
and New York City, and along Peconic and Gardiners Bays.

Dangerous surf will build to 10 to 16 feet Tuesday into Tuesday night.
This will result in widespread dune erosion and localized washovers.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut.
Potential impacts include:
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across tidal portions of southeast New York and southern Connecticut.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Widespread beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong and frequent rip
      currents.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and
Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
    - Rivers, Small streams, creeks and canals may become swollen and could
      overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

If you live in a place that is particularly vulnerable to high wind,
such as a mobile home, a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. Take
enough supplies for you and your family for several days.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean, in a low lying or poor drainage area, or near an
already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New York NY around 12 AM, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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