[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Jose Local Statement Advisory Number 54
National Weather Service Taunton MA  AL122017
534 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

This product covers Southern New England

**Jose still forecast to impact southeast New England**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barnstable MA, Block
      Island RI, Dukes MA, Eastern Plymouth MA, Nantucket MA, Newport
      RI, Southern Bristol MA, Southern Plymouth MA, and Washington RI

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 450 miles south of Nantucket MA
    - 34.8N 71.1W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Jose is forecast to pass to the southeast of Nantucket during the day
on Wednesday. The impact of Tropical Storm Jose on southeast New
England will be similar to that of a strong nor'easter, complete with
coastal flooding, locally heavy rain, and strong wind gusts. The
biggest impacts will be on Nantucket, Cape Cod, and the southeast coast
of Massachusetts.

Moderate coastal flooding is expected at Nantucket Harbor Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible
elsewhere along the Rhode Island and Massachusetts coasts. Winds are
forecast to gust to 40 to 50 mph along the Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coasts with some gusts to 60 mph possible on Cape Cod and the
Islands. Rain will be heaviest on Cape Cod and Nantucket, where 3 to
5 inches is possible, with locally higher amounts.

On the coastal waters south and southeast of New England, seas will
build to more than 20 feet, with up to 25 feet over the outer waters
south of Nantucket. The combination of high seas and strong winds will
result in life-threatening conditions. All mariners are advised to be
in port by tonight.

Severe beach erosion will occur along the coastlines of southeast
Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Dangerous rip currents will occur
along the entire Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastline. It appears
that later in the week, what is expected to be Post-Tropical Storm
Jose may linger well offshore of New England and thus the threat of
beach erosion and rip currents will be prolonged, likely lasting
through the upcoming weekend and perhaps even into early next week.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Minor coastal flooding is possible Tuesday night. However, a storm
surge of 1 to 3 feet may occur Wednesday and Wednesday night, above
already high astronomical tides, for both south and east facing
coastlines. When combined with large wave action, this could produce
localized areas of 1 to 3 feet of inundation above ground level. The
greatest impact could potentially be in Nantucket Harbor, where
moderate coastal flooding is forecast. Heavy rains on Nantucket
could exacerbate the situation since the water cannot evacuate
properly during the lower tides. Minor to moderate coastal flooding
is expected along the southeastern Massachusetts coastline. Minor to
low-end moderate coastal flooding is possible along the Rhode Island
coastline.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Jose will likely bring large waves, possibly over 15 feet, to ocean
exposed beaches across southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Severe beach erosion will occur. Some protective dunes may be at
risk of being overtopped or eroded away. Dangerous rip currents will
occur along the entire Massachusetts and Rhode Island coastline. It
appears that later in the week, what is expected to be Post-Tropical
Storm Jose may linger well offshore of New England and thus the
threat of beach erosion and rip currents will be prolonged, likely
lasting through the upcoming weekend and perhaps even into early
next week.

* WIND:
Winds are forecast to gust to 40 to 50 mph along the Massachusetts
and Rhode Island coasts with some gusts to 60 mph possible on Cape
Cod and the Islands beginning late Tuesday afternoon and continuing
through Wednesday. The strong wind gusts may persist along the
southeast coast through Thursday as well. Near the coast and
especially across Cape Cod and the Islands, winds may be strong
enough to knock down some trees, large branches, and power lines.
Scattered power outages may occur.

Farther inland, outside of the tropical storm force wind threat
area, because of the full foliage, there could still be some impacts
from gusty winds that could down some smaller tree limbs.

Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
southern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts, especially across
Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod.

* FLOODING RAIN:
A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for Cape Cod and Nantucket, where
three to five inches of rain are possible, mainly Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Localized flash flooding in urban areas is possible on Cape
Cod and Nantucket. Farther to the west, only 1 to 2 inches of rain is
forecast for the corridor from Boston to Providence. Much less rain
with little or no impact expected in western and central Massachusetts
and northern Connecticut. A slight shift in the track of Jose could
greatly influence the location of the heaviest rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter,
leave early before weather conditions become hazardous

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to bring to completion all preparations to protect your
home or business. Outside preparations should be wrapped up as soon as
possible before weather conditions completely deteriorate. Deliberate
efforts should be underway to protect life and property. Ensure that
your emergency supplies kit is stocked and ready.

All mariners should be in port tonight. Make sure that your boat is
moored very securely or remove it from the water while there is still
time.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Taunton MA around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
Field
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