[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KPHI 181547
HLSPHI
DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-190000-

Hurricane Jose Local Statement Advisory Number 53
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ  AL122017
1147 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

This product covers NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND

**Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect for Coastal Portions of
 Delaware and New Jersey with the Potential for Tropical Storm Winds
 Tuesday through early Wednesday**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Atlantic, Atlantic
      Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean,
      Delaware Beaches, Eastern Monmouth, Inland Sussex, Ocean,
      Southeastern Burlington, and Western Monmouth

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 420 miles south-southeast of Atlantic City NJ or about
      400 miles southeast of Cape Henlopen DE
    - 33.9N 71.1W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Jose was located approximately 265 miles east-southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving northward at 9 mph late this
morning. A continued northward movement is expected with the hurricane
through Tuesday. Jose is then forecast to turn more to the northeast
and weaken to a tropical storm Tuesday night into Wednesday. This
latest forecast track keeps the center of Jose about 200 miles off the
northern mid-Atlantic coast at its closest point to the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon and through Wednesday morning.

The Tropical Storm Watch continues for coastal counties in Delaware
and New Jersey. There is a potential for tropical storm-force winds to
arrive in southeastern portions of Delaware and New Jersey during the
day on Tuesday and then along the coast in central New Jersey either
during the afternoon or night on Tuesday. The strongest winds and the
greatest potential for tropical storm conditions are still expected to
be confined to the coast and adjacent coastal waters Tuesday afternoon
through early Wednesday morning.

Widespread minor coastal flooding is expected with widespread water
levels of 1 to 2 feet above ground level. There is a potential for
locally higher water levels of 2 to 3 feet above ground level, which
could lead to moderate coastal flooding for the ocean front and back
bays communities near high tide late Tuesday afternoon and night.

A period of moderate to locally heavy rain is possible Tuesday
afternoon and night. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches through
Wednesday are currently expected for the coastal plain in eastern New
Jersey, which could lead to minor poor drainage flooding. However, if
the storm were to shift a bit farther west than currently forecast, the
risk for heavier rainfall and flooding would increase across much of
New Jersey. If the heavier rain falls at the time of high tide, it
could exacerbate the coastal flooding issues.

Hazardous seas and dangerous surf, including a high risk for the
formation of life threatening rip currents, can be expected through
the week. Significant beach erosion is also likely, especially Tuesday
and Tuesday night when both winds and waves ramp up.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across coastal locales in Delaware and New Jersey. Potential impacts
in this area include:
    - Localized inundation is possible with storm surge flooding
      mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in
      areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots could become
      overspread with surge water. Dangerous driving conditions are
      possible in places where surge water covers the road.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers is possible. A few small craft may be broken away
      from moorings.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across New
Jersey and Delaware. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes is possible. Unsecured lightweight objects could
      be blown around.
    - Large tree limbs may be broken off. A few trees could be snapped
      or uprooted. Some fences and roadway signs may be blown over.
    - Hazardous driving conditions are possible on bridges and other
      elevated roadways.
    - Isolated to perhaps scattered power and communications outages
      are possible.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Hazardous seas and dangerous surf is expected ahead of and with the
passage of Jose. Moderate beach erosion is expected with the heavy surf
also breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. There is
a high risk for life-threatening rip currents.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited
impacts across eastern New Jersey and coastal Delaware. Potential
impacts include:
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in vulnerable
      spots. Rapid ponding of water may occur at underpasses, low-lying
      spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and
      retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some
      brief road closures are possible.

Elsewhere across New Jersey, Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania and eastern
Maryland, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary
actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be
underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency
Supplies Kit is stocked and ready.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties
which must be taken into account.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean, in a low lying or poor drainage area, in a valley, or
near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher
ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders
that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives
of others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be conducted
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds and heavy rain can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mount Holly NJ around 530 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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