[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 18/0900 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 245 nm east-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 33.0N 71.4W,
moving north at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
974 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt.
Convection associated with Jose is north of the discussion area.
Jose is forecast to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone
through Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 18/0900 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located about 85 nm east of
Martinique near 14.6N 59.5W, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is from 12N-16.5N between 56W-61W. Hurricane
warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. Maria
is forecast to intensify further over the next 48 hours. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 18/0900 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee was located about 920 nm
west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 14.1N 39.8W, moving west-
northwest at 11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is displaced east of the
center within 60 nm of 14N38W. Lee will slowly weaken during the
next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis along
75W south of 19N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region
of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Isolated
convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America with an axis
along 91W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of high
moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700
mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate convection is
over Central America from Yucatan to El Salvador.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
19N16W to 11N21W to 07N29W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N-10N between 14W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is over the northern Gulf of Mexico. In upper
levels, an anticyclone is over the W Gulf near 25N95W. An upper
level trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 80W. Strong
subsidence and minimal convection prevail over the region.
Expect scattered showers over Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of
Campeche today from a passing tropical wave.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 75W. See section above for details. The
eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the Pacific reaches
the coast of Colombia, and is producing scattered showers in the
southwest Caribbean south of 11N. An area of scattered moderate
convection is from 13N-15N between 89W-91W. Moderate trade winds
prevail across most of the basin, strongest in the south-central
Caribbean. Expect the tropical wave to continue moving west with
minimal convection. Hurricane Maria is expected to move into the
northeast Caribbean and head toward Puerto Rico during the next
48-72 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated convection is near the northern coast of the island.
Expect diurnal convection to develop each afternoon over the
next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria and T.D. Lee. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 32N40W to
24N41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-31N between
36W-39W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence
of a broad surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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