[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

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Hurricane Jose Local Statement Advisory Number 52
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ  AL122017
531 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

This product covers NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND

**Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Coastal Portions of
Delaware and New Jersey**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Atlantic, Atlantic
      Coastal Cape May, Cape May, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean,
      Delaware Beaches, Eastern Monmouth, Inland Sussex, Ocean,
      Southeastern Burlington, and Western Monmouth

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 470 miles south-southeast of Atlantic City NJ or about
      480 miles south-southeast of Dover DE
    - 33.0N 71.4W
    - Storm Intensity 85 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Jose is currently located approximately 280 miles east-
southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and will track to the north
over the western Atlantic Ocean waters, east of the East Coast of the
United States, this week. Jose will pass off the Delaware and New
Jersey coasts on Tuesday before curving to the northeast and weakening
to a Tropical Storm on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The Tropical Storm Watch continues for locations near and just
inland from the coast over Delaware and New Jersey, including the
adjacent coastal waters and the Lower Delaware Bay. Tropical Storm
force winds are expected to arrive in Delaware and southern New
Jersey Tuesday morning, and then along the coasts in central and
northern New Jersey Tuesday afternoon. The strongest winds are
expected to be confined to to the coast and adjacent waters, with
less windy conditions just inland as well. The strongest winds
should occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening, and then the
winds should fall below Tropical Storm force by early Wednesday
morning.

Coastal flooding will pose a risk to both life and property for the
high tide cycles Tuesday, and Tuesday night. In particular,
widespread moderate coastal flooding is possible for the ocean
front, back bays, and Delaware Bay with the late Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night high tide cycle.

Heavy rain is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, and could
result in freshwater flooding, mainly for coastal New Jersey.
Between 1 and 2 inches of rain is forecast for eastern New Jersey
from Monday night through Wednesday, but locally heavier amounts are
possible, especially Tuesday evening. There is also the potential
for the storm to shift a bit farther west, and this would bring
heavier rain into much of New Jersey as well. If the heavier rain
falls at the time of high tide, it could worsen the coastal flooding
issues.

Hazardous seas and dangerous surf resulting in a high risk for the
formation of dangerous and life threatening rip currents are
expected this week. Significant beach erosion is also expected for
much of this week.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across coastal portions of Delaware and New Jersey, including the ocean
front, back bays, and lower Delaware Bay. Potential impacts in this
area include:
    - Localized inundation is possible with storm surge flooding
      mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in
      areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots could become
      overspread with surge water. Dangerous driving conditions are
      possible in places where surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion is expected. Heavy surf also breaching
      dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip
      currents are anticipated.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers is possible. A few small craft may be broken away
      from moorings.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across New
Jersey, Delaware, Southeastern Pennsylvania and Eastern Maryland.
Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes is possible. Unsecured lightweight objects could
      be blown around.
    - Many large tree limbs may be broken off. A few trees could be
      snapped or uprooted. Some fences and roadway signs may be blown
      over.
    - A few roads could be impassable from debris. Hazardous driving
      conditions are possible on bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages are possible.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited
impacts across across northern and eastern New Jersey. Potential
impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
      vulnerable spots. Rapid ponding of water may occur at
      underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several
      storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to
      overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures are possible.

Elsewhere across NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND, little to no impact is anticipated.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Hazardous seas and dangerous surf is expected ahead of and with the
passage of Jose. This results in the formation of dangerous and lift
threatening rip currents. Significant beach erosion also expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary
actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be
underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency
Supplies Kit is stocked and ready.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties
which must be taken into account.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean, in a low lying or poor drainage area, in a valley, or
near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher
ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders
that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives
of others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be conducted
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds and heavy rain can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Visitors to the area should become familiar with nearby surroundings.
If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to
area visitors.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mount Holly NJ around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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