[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 18/0300 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 265 nm
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 32.2N 71.6W,
moving north at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
972 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Convection associated with Jose is mainly north of 31N. Jose is
forecast to gradually weaken, but remain a hurricane through
Tuesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 18/0300 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located about 85 nm
northeast of Barbados near 14.2N 58.4W, moving west-northwest at
11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous strong
convection is from 13N-15N between 57W-60W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 12N-16N between 55W-61W. Hurricane
warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. Maria
is forecast to intensify further over the next 48 hours. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 18/0300 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee was located about 850 nm
west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13.6N 38.5W, moving west
northwest at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Widely scattered moderate convection is displaced southeast of
the center. Lee will slowly weaken during the next 24 hours.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis along
74W south of 19N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region
of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Widely
scattered moderate convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America with an axis
along 90W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of high
moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700
mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate convection is
over Central America from Honduras to Costa Rica.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N16W to
08N21W to 07N29W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N
between 18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico. In upper levels,
an anticyclone is over the W Gulf near 25N95W. An upper level
trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence
and minimal convection prevail over the entire region. Expect
scattered showers over Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche
during the next 24 hours mostly due to a tropical wave.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 74W. See the section above for details.
The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the Pacific
reaches the coast of Colombia, and producing scattered showers
in the southwest Caribbean south of 11N. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail across the basin, with strongest winds in the
central Caribbean. Expect for the tropical waves to continue
moving west with minimal convection. Hurricane Maria is expected
to move into the northeast Caribbean and head toward Puerto Rico
during the next 48-72 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection is over the northern coast of the
island. Expect diurnal convection to develop each afternoon over
the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, T.D. Lee and Hurricane Maria. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 32N39W to
24N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-31N between
37W-40W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence
of a broad surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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