[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Jose Local Statement Advisory Number 50
National Weather Service New York NY  AL122017
607 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

This product covers portions of Southeast New York, Northeast New
Jersey, and Southern Connecticut

**Tropical Storm Watch Now in Effect for Long Island, Southern
 Westchester, and Coastal and Southeast Connecticut**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Northeastern
      Suffolk, Northern Middlesex, Northern Nassau, Northern New
      London, Northwestern Suffolk, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern
      Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New
      Haven, Southern New London, Southern Westchester, and
      Southwestern Suffolk

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northeastern Suffolk,
      Northern Middlesex, Northern Nassau, Northern New London,
      Northwestern Suffolk, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Fairfield,
      Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven,
      Southern New London, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern
      Suffolk

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 650 miles south-southeast of New York City NY or about
      660 miles south of Montauk Point NY
    - 31.5N 71.8W
    - Storm Intensity 90 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Jose will track northward through the western Atlantic waters
through mid week, passing to the southeast of the area late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. The hurricane will be close enough to to bring
potential impacts of tropical storm force winds, coastal flooding, and
heavy rainfall. The best chance for tropical storm force winds and
heavy rain will be across eastern Long Island and southeast
Connecticut. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also expected with
water levels of 1 to 2 feel above ground level possible.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across western Long Island, southwest Connecticut, and southern
Westchester.

* SURGE:
Areas of 1 to 2 feet inundation are possible with the Tuesday and
Wednesday high tide cycles across tidal portions of Southeast New York,
Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Localized inundation of
up to 3 feet is possible in the typically more vulnerable locations
along the south shore back bays of Long Island and New York City, and
along Peconic and Gardiners Bays.


* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
Jose will likely bring large waves, possibly close to 20 feet on the
coastal ocean waters south of Long Island, 9 to 12 feet on the Sound
waters east of Orient Point, and up to 8 feet on central Long Island
Sound. Dangerous rip currents, high surf, widespread dune erosion, and
localized washovers are all possible through mid week, especially on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally heavy rainfall having possible limited impacts
across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern
Connecticut. Potential impacts include:
    - Rapid ponding of water could occur in highly urbanized areas, at
      underpasses, low lying spots, and poor drainage areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary
actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be
underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency
Supplies Kit is stocked and ready.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties
which must be taken into account.

If you live in a place that is particularly vulnerable to high wind,
such as a mobile home or on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. Take
enough supplies for you and your family for several days.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean, in a low lying or poor drainage area, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders
that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives
of others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be conducted
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds and heavy rain can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and other family members know of your
intentions and whereabouts for surviving the storm. For emergency
purposes, have someone located away from the threatened area serve as
your point of contact. Share vital contact information with others.
Keep cell phones handy and well charged.

Be a Good Samaritan and check on those who may not be fully aware of
the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations.

Visitors to the area should become familiar with nearby surroundings.
If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to
area visitors.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in New York NY around 1200 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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