[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 17/1500 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 308 nm southeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 31.0N 71.9W, moving north
at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered
to numerous moderate convection is from 28N-35N between 65W-74W.
Little change in intensity is expected during the next 24 hours.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 17/1500 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee was located about 760 nm
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13.0N 36.7W, moving
west at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
showers are mainly south of the center between 33W-39W. Lee will
continue weakening as it moves west through the next 24 hours.
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

At 17/1500 UTC, Tropical Storm Maria was located about 391 nm
east-southeast of the Leeward Islands near 13.5N 56.2W, moving
west-northwest at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 994 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
Scattered moderate convection in spiral bands extend outward up to
200 nm from the center. Maria is forecast to intensify, and
become a hurricane in the next 06-24 hours. Please see the latest
NHC Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean with axis along 71W
south of 19N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region of
moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Minimal convection
is associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave moving over Central America and approaching the
Yucatan Peninsula with axis along 87W south of 23N, moving west
at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of deep moisture as noted by
SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700 mb trough are both
evident in observations and latest guidance. Isolated convection
is associated with this wave.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to
08N21W to 09N29W. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm
south of the trough axis mainly east of 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the western Gulf waters from 26N95W to
22N95W. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the trough axis.
In the upper levels, an upper-level anticyclone is over the
eastern Mexico near 23N100W with strong subsidence. An upper-
level trough is over the eastern Gulf with axis along 85W.
Minimal shower activity is associated with this trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section
above for details. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in
the Pacific reaches the northwest coast of Colombia and is
producing scattered moderate convection in the southwest
Caribbean south of 10N between 75W-83W. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail across the basin, with strongest winds in the central
Caribbean. Expect for the tropical waves to continue moving west
with convection. T.S. Maria is expected to approach the Lesser
Antilles as a hurricane in 24 hours, with marine conditions
deteriorating through the week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Convective activity is minimal over Hispaniola at this time.
Expect diurnal convection to develop in the afternoon hours over the
next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, T.S. Lee and T.S. Maria. The
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 37N21W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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