[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 17/0300 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 400 nm SSE of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 29.2N 71.8W, moving north at
6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is from 28N-32N between 69W-74W.
Little or no intensification is expected during the next 24
hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 17/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm Lee was located about 660 nm west-
southwest of the Cape Verde Islands near 12.8N 34.9W, moving
west at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous
strong convection is mainly south of the center within 60 nm of
12N35W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 09N-12N
between 33W-37W. Lee is expected to move west-northwest with
little change in intensity through early next week. Please see
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

At 17/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm Maria was located about 475 nm
ESE of the Lesser Antilles near 12.5N 53.7W, moving west at 14
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is within 60 nm of the center, and
spiral bands of moderate convection extend outward up to 200 nm
from the center. Maria is forecast to intensify, and become a
hurricane in the next 24-36 hours. Please see the latest NHC
Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is along 68W south of
21N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of moderate
moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Minimal convection is
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave moving into Central America is along 85W south
of 22N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of deep
moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700
mb trough are both evident. Isolated convection is associated
with this wave.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
09N20W to 14N28W. Aside from the convection related to T.S. Lee
and T.S. Maria, Scattered moderate convection is south of the
trough from 05N-08N between 12W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico from 27N92W to
22N94W. Isolated showers are near the trough axis. In the upper
levels, an upper level high is over the W Gulf near 22N97W with
strong subsidence. An upper level trough is over the E Gulf with
axis along 85W. Minimal shower activity is associated with the
upper trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean. See above.
The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the Pacific
reaches the NW coast of Colombia and is producing scattered
scattered moderate convection in the SW Caribbean S of 11N. 10
to 20 kt winds are over the Caribbean, with strongest winds in
the central Caribbean. Expect the tropical waves to continue
moving west with scattered showers. T.S. Maria is expected to
approach the Lesser Antilles near 15N60W in 48 hours as a
hurricane, with marine conditions deteriorating Mon and Tue.

...HISPANIOLA...

Convective activity is decreasing over Hispaniola. Expect
diurnal convection to develop in the afternoon hours the next
few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, T.S. Lee and T.S. Maria. The
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 35N50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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