[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
735 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 16/2100 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 421 nm SSE of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 28.9N 71.9W, moving north at 5
kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous strong
convection is from 28N-31N between 70W-73W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 27N-32N between 68W-73W. Slight
intensification is expected during the next 24 hours. Please see
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 16/2100 UTC, Tropical Storm Lee is located about 625 nm west-
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 12.6N 34.2W, moving west
at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous
strong convection is from 10N-13N between 33W-36W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 09N-13N between 33W-37W. Lee
is expected to continue moving west through the weekend, then
move west-northwest early next week. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

At 16/2100 UTC, Tropical Storm Maria is located about 538 nm ESE
of the Lesser Antilles, near 12.3N 52.6W, moving west a 17 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Maria is forecast
to intensify to a hurricane in 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC
Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N67W to 10N67W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a
region of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A 700
mb trough is also seen in model guidance. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the trough axis.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 22N83W to 11N84W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a
region of strong moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface
trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Widely scattered
moderate convection is over Central America from Honduras to
Panama.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
11N20W to 15N27W. Aside from the convection related to T.S. Lee
and T.S. Maria, Scattered moderate convection is along the coast
of W Africa from 08N-12N between 12W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico from 27N92W to
21N95W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis. In
the upper levels, an upper level high is over the W Gulf near
22N97W with strong subsidence. An upper level trough is over the E
Gulf with axis along 85W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough
axis is supporting scattered showers over the E Gulf from 24N-32N
between 82W-87W. Expect the upper level trough to move E to
Florida over the next 24 hours. Expect showers to persist over the
W Gulf over the next 24 hours. Also expect showers over S
Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean waters. See
above. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough reaches the NW
coast of Colombia and is producing scattered scattered moderate
convection over the SW Caribbean S of 11N. 10-20 kt surface winds
are over the Caribbean with strongest winds over the central
Caribbean. Expect for the tropical waves to continue moving west
with scattered showers. Also expect T.S. Maria to approach the
Lesser Antilles near 15N60W in 48 hours as a Hurricane.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are presently over
Hispaniola. Expect diurnal convection to develop in the afternoon
hours for the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, T.S. Lee and T.S. Maria. The
remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 36N51W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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