[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 16/1500 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose was located about
417 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 28.8N 72.2W,
moving northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 982 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 26N-31N between
67W-74W. Little change in intensity is expected during the next
24-48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 16/1500 UTC, the Tropical Depression Fourteen was transitioned
to T.S. Lee, located about 569 nm west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands with center near 12.5N 33.1W, moving west at 10 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 30W-37W. Lee
is expected to continue moving west through the weekend, then move
west-northwest early next week. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

At 16/1800 UTC, the Potential T.C. 15 has intensified and now is
T.D. 15, centered near 11.9N 51.6W, moving west a 17 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 09N-16N between 46W-54W. Please see the latest NHC
Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Caribbean has an axis extending from
22N65W to 11N65W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a
region of deep moisture as noted in SSMI TPW imagery. A sharp 700
mb trough is also seen in model guidance and latest observations.
No significant convection is related to the wave at this time.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean with an axis extending
from 22N82W to 11N82W is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is
in a region of deep moisture noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface
trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate
convection prevails where the axis meets the monsoon trough mainly
south of 12N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
12N27W. Aside from the convection related to T.S. Lee and the
Potential T.C. 15, no significant convection is observed at this
time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf waters. The only
area with scattered showers remains in the vicinity of a surface
trough that extends from 27N87W to 24N92W. At upper levels, an
anticyclone is developing across the western Gulf waters and
extending across the basin. This pattern will continue through
the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. The eastern extension of the E
Pacific's monsoon trough reaches the southern Caribbean enhacing
convection south of 12N between 80W-84W. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate trades across most of the basin except between
66W-74W where moderate to fresh easterlies prevail. Expect for the
tropical waves to continue moving west with scattered showers. The
now T.D. Maria will approach the Lesser Antilles enhancing
winds/seas.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are observed over the southern portion of the
island at this time. Expect diurnal convection to develop in the
afternoon hours for the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, T.S. Lee and T.D 15. The remainder
of the basin remains under the influence of a surface ridge,
anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 37N48W.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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