[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
724 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 15/2100 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is around 421 nm SW
of Bermuda near 27.1N 70.3W, moving NW at 9 kt. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65
kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm
of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
24N-30N between 67W-73W. Some strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

At 15/2100 UTC, the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen is
around 391 nm WSW of the Cape Verde Islands near 12.6N 29.7W,
moving WNW at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-12N
between 28W-34W. The depression is forecast to become a tropical
storm on 16/1800 UTC. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
15N43W to 05N45W, moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a region
of very deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N-15N between
42W-47W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
is expected to form over the weekend. There is a high chance for
this system to become a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles with axis extending
from 23N58W to 12N60W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a region
of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A sharp 700 mb
trough is also seen. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
13N-18N between 56W-62W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N77W to 09N78W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is
in a region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A
surface trough and 700 mb trough are both seen. Scattered moderate
convection is over Jamaica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over N Colombia and E Panama.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends west from the African coast near 13N17W
to 13N26W. The ITCZ begins near 08N48W and continues to 07N59W.
Aside from the convection related to T.D. Fourteen and the two
tropical waves, widely scattered moderate convection is along the
ITCZ from 06N-09N between 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico from 29N90W
to 22N91W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
Gulf with axis along 92W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough
axis is supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection over the E Gulf from 24N-28N between 86W-91W.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Expect the upper level trough to move E to Florida over the next
48 hours. Expect convection to persist over the E Gulf over the
next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean waters, and
another wave is over the Lesser Antilles. See above. The eastern
extension of the monsoon trough reaches the NW coast of Colombia
and is producing scattered scattered moderate convection over the
SW Caribbean S of 13N. Otherwise, the inflow rain bands of
Hurricane Jose located in the SW Atlantic support scattered
showers in the central Caribbean to include Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola, between 65W-73W. Winds across much of the Caribbean
remain in the gentle to moderate range due to a weak surface
pressure gradient.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are presently over
Hispaniola mostly due to the the inflow rain bands of Hurricane
Jose located in the SW Atlantic. Expect convection to continue over
the island for the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Jose, T.D. Fourteen, and a tropical wave
over the central Atlc with potential to become a tropical cyclone
this weekend. Otherwise, a dissipating cold front curves SW from
30N37W to 27N44W. The remainder of the basin remains under the
influence of a surface ridge. The front is forecast to dissipate
tonight.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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