[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 15/0900 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Jose is around 435
nm SSW of Bermuda near 25.9N 68.7W, moving WNW at 7 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is present in the NE semicircle within
90 nm. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen
elsewhere from 24N to 29N between 65W and 70W. Some
restrengthening is forecast today, and Jose will likely become a
hurricane again. Jose is expected to gradually turn toward the
north during the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E has just formed from a vigorous
tropical wave that emerged into the Atlantic from Africa
yesterday. The center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is around
380 nm SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands near 10.6N 27.3W, moving W at
13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found from 08N to 13N between
25W and 30W. T.D. Fourteen-E could become a tropical storm by
tonight and maintain the same general course and speed during the
next couple of days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over the central Atlc has an axis extending from
15N38W to 03N38W, moving W around 15 kt. The wave is in a region
of very deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 06N and 14N between 38W and
48W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while it moves westward across the
tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave currently approaching the Windward and Leeward
Islands has an axis extending from 19N56W to 11N56W, moving west
around 15 kt. The wave is in a region of modest moisture as noted
by SSMI TPW imagery. A modest 700 mb trough coincides with the
position of the tropical wave in initial 700 nm wind fields.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection occurring from
14N to 16N between 54W and 57W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 19N74W to 08N75W, moving W at around 5 kt. The wave is in a
region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface
trough and well defined 700 mb trough both coincide with the
position of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is observed
along the south coast of Hispaniola and east of Jamaica from 17N
to 18N between 69W and 76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends west from Mauritania on the African
coast near 18N16W to 12N24W, then resumes from 11N30W to 08N39W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N39W to 06N48W to 08N55W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is taking place from 09N to 12N
between 31W and 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough over Yucatan Peninsula is producing scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection over the peninsula. In the
upper levels, an upper level high is building eastward over the
Gulf from Texas and Mexico. Upper level diffluence on the E side
of the high is supporting isolated thunderstorms over the central
Gulf. Expect the upper-level high to build eastward over the Gulf
during next 48 hours and suppress convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is slowly traversing the central Caribbean
waters. See above. The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough reaches the NW coast of Colombia and is producing
scattered scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over
the extreme SW Caribbean S of 11N. Convergent low-level flow into
Jose is generating scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection SE of Puerto Rico from 15N to 18N between Winds across
much of the Caribbean remain in the gentle to moderate range due
to a weak surface pressure gradient south of T.S. Jose. Winds over
the Gulf of Honduras and along the Coast of Venezuela are
moderate to fresh due to troughing over the Yucatan Peninsula and
low-level convergence on the east of the tropical wave over the
central Caribbean. This general weather pattern will continue for
the next couple of days until Jose moves farther north.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated thunderstorms are observed over Hispaniola due to low-
level convergence and deep moisture on the south side of Tropical
Storm Jose located in the SW Atlantic; and the influence of the
tropical wave departing to the west. Expect some convection to
continue over the island for the next few days as Jose moves WNW.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Tropical Storm Jose, T.D, Fourteen-E and the two
tropical waves. See the tropical waves section for more
information. Otherwise, a cold front extends SW over the central
Atlantic from 32N39W to 28N45W, then continues as a weakening
stationary front to 24N52W, then as a frontal trough to 21N56W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found along and
up to 300 nm east of the front and north of 30N. Expect the front
to dissipate during the next 12 hours. A surface trough extends
north from 24N37W to 30N38W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection associated with the trough is found from 28N to
30N between 35W and 37W. The remainder of the basin remains under
the influence of ridging extending SW from a 1030 mb high centered
NE of the Azores near 50N21W to 18N53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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