[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 14/1800 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Jose is around 447
nm SSW of Bermuda near 24.9N 66.6W, moving WNW at 7 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is
from 25N-27N between 66W-68W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 22N-27N between 65W-69W. Some restrengthening is
forecast for Friday evening, and Jose will likely become a
hurricane again. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low
pressure center near 10N24W. The wave axis extends from 16N24W to
the low to 05N24W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region
of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A 700 mb low is
also noted. Some development of this system is possible over the
next few days. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from
09N-13N between 23W-27W. There is a medium chance for this system
to become a tropical cyclone during the next two days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc from 15N34W to 03N35W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region of very deep
moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-15N between 32W-40W. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 19N54W to 11N54W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a
region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A sharp 700
mb trough is also seen. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 13N-16N between 51W-54W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis
extending from 20N71W to 10N73W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is
in a region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A
surface trough and 700 mb trough are both seen. Scattered moderate
convection is over Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over N Colombia.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends west from the African coast near 15N17W
to 10N24W to 11N31W to 06N40W. The ITCZ continues from 06N40W to
04N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves,
widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between
48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico from 30N89W to
23N90W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered S of
Louisiana near 28N90W. Upper level diffluence E of the low is
supporting scattered moderate convection over the NE Gulf from
25N-29N between 83W-89W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Yucatan
Channel. Expect the upper level low to move NE over the next 48
hours. Expect convection to persist over the E Gulf over the next
48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean waters. See
above. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough reaches the NW
coast of Colombia and is producing scattered scattered moderate
convection over the SW Caribbean S of 13N. Otherwise, the outer
rainbands of Tropical Storm Jose located in the SW Atlantic
support scattered showers in the NE Caribbean and Puerto Rico.
Winds across much of the Caribbean remain in the gentle to
moderate range due to a weak surface pressure gradient.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola due to inflow of
moist air associated with Tropical Storm Jose located in the SW
Atlantic; and a tropical wave. Expect convection to continue over
the island for the next few days as Jose moves WNW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on Tropical Storm Jose and easternmost Atlc Tropical
Wave. See tropical waves section for information on the remainder
waves. Otherwise, the tail end of a cold front is over the central
Atlantic from 31N41W to 24N51W. Scattered showers are within 120
nm of the front. The remainder of the basin remains under the
influence of a surface ridge. Expect the front to dissipate over
the next 12 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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